NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032

This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu by 2024. Although substantial demand for North American LNG exports has returned, the post-pandemic demand recovery has created tightness in the coal market, boosting power burns for gas, and operators are ramping up production slower than expected. We anticipate many of the dynamics set to reverse course in the near term, and the price premium in today’s market will disappear in a few years. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a steadier but increasing trend, growing toward surpassing the US$3/MMBtu mark around 2034.