Commodity market report

Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

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Report summary

Singapore wholesale electricity prices (WEP) have further slumped to below SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) following the commissioning of the 411 MW Tuaspring CCGT power plant. Power prices in the first three months of this year have averaged US$40/MWh. This is well below the estimated SRMC of CCGTs plants at US$50/MWh and LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) of US$65/MWh at a LNG price of 6.8/mmbtu. These prices are expected to remain at current levels over the next two years resulting in negative spark spreads and hence the power plants using LNG only will even have difficulties recovering their SRMC. This has raised doubts over the sustainability of the new entrants.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Singapore Power Data.xls

    XLS 878.60 KB

  • Document

    Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 4.13 MB

  • Document

    Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 4.36 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 2.97 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 60.91 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 248.16 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 91.96 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 104.48 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 114.16 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 124.98 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 99.08 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 116.12 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 818.14 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 79.94 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
  • Environmental policy and renewables
  • Supply
  • Costs
  • Infrastructure
  • Demand
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 43 images and tables including:

Images

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • GDP Forecast - Singapore
  • Reserve margin with combined cycle plant at licensed capacity
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Generation: renewables by fuel
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
  • Costs: Image 2
  • Singapore 2030 merit order
  • Grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power import from Malaysia
  • Singapore wholesale and regulated retail prices
  • Singapore wholesale prices in S$ and US$
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low cases
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas demand
  • Singapore’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Singapore power market value chain
  • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 5
  • Singapore electricity infrastructure
  • GDP growth and power sales growth
  • Power sales
  • Singapore captive power sales
  • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Annual average price forecast
  • Annual average price by period type
  • Annual system price vs plant short run cost
  • Levelised capex vs spark spreads

Tables

  • Singapore power available capacity
  • Singapore power market balance
  • Executive summary: Table 3
  • Key changes to power analysis from H2 2015 publication:
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
  • Major Energy Legislation
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Planned and forecast captive power capacity

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