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Singapore wholesale electricity prices (WEP) have further slumped to below SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) following the commissioning of the 411 MW Tuaspring CCGT power plant. Power prices in the first three months of this year have averaged US$40/MWh. This is well below the estimated SRMC of CCGTs plants at US$50/MWh and LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) of US$65/MWh at a LNG price of 6.8/mmbtu. These prices are expected to remain at current levels over the next two years resulting in negative spark spreads and hence the power plants using LNG only will even have difficulties recovering their SRMC. This has raised doubts over the sustainability of the new entrants.
What's included?
This report includes 2 file(s)
Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 4.13 MB 32 Pages, 8 Tables, 35 Figures
Singapore Power Data.xls XLS - 878.60 KB
Description
The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.
This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.
Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.
Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.
Electricity prices drop below SRMC of power plants
Negative spark spread over the next couple of years
Reserve Margin increase further
Environmental policy and renewables In this report we introduce a new section covering the renewable and environmental policies in the country and status of renewable growth along with future prospects. In addition, we present the contribution to national emissions from the power sector and analyse the impact of COP21 commitments made by the government for reducing emissions.
Data Summary
Economic outlook
Economic Indicators
Policy and regulation
Key stakeholders
Key offices
Energy Policy
Competition
Fuel mix
Pricing
Power Market Regulation
Market operator
Generation
Transmission & Distribution
Retail
Regulation
Environmental policy and renewables
Policy
Renewables
COP21 INDC target
COP21 INDC target
Supply
Capacity & reserve margin
Costs
Breakeven Cost By Technology
New-build economics
Screening Curves
Short Run Marginal Cost Analysis
Infrastructure
In this section
Singapore Power Transmission Infrastructure
Power Infrastructure - Current
Power Infrastructure - Map
Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
Demand
Power demand
GDP Growth and Power Sales
Supply-demand balances
Annual generation forecast
Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
Transmission utilisation across regions
Captive power
Captive Power Demand
Current and Future Captive Capacity
Prices
End-user tariffs
Power Price Forecast
Average Annual System Short-run Cost
Spark-spread
Risks and uncertainties
GDP Sensitivity on Gas Demand
In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:
Executive summary
Executive summary: Image 1
Executive summary: Image 2
Executive summary: Image 3
Singapore power available capacity
Singapore power market balance
Executive summary: Table 3
Key changes to power analysis from H2 2015 publication:
Economic outlook
GDP Forecast - Singapore
Policy and regulation
Singapore’s energy policy and regulatory structure
Singapore power market value chain
Major Energy Legislation
Environmental policy and renewables
Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
Capacity: renewables by fuel
Generation: renewables by fuel
Environmental policy and renewables: Image 5
Supply
Existing and planned capacity with peak load
Capacity by plant type and reserve margin
Costs
Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
Costs: Image 2
Singapore 2030 merit order
Infrastructure
Singapore electricity infrastructure
Demand
Reserve margin with combined cycle plant at licensed capacity
GDP growth and power sales growth
Power sales
Supply-demand balances
Grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
Grid generation by fuel used (%)
Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
Power import from Malaysia
Singapore captive power sales
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Planned and forecast captive power capacity
Prices
Prices: Image 1
Singapore wholesale and regulated retail prices
Singapore wholesale prices in S$ and US$
Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
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Commodity market report | Jul 2016
Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016
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