Commodity market report
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32 Pages

Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

Singapore wholesale electricity prices (WEP) have further slumped to below SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) following the commissioning of the 411 MW Tuaspring CCGT power plant. Power prices in the first three months of this year have averaged US$40/MWh. This is well below the estimated SRMC of CCGTs plants at US$50/MWh and LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) of US$65/MWh at a LNG price of 6.8/mmbtu. These prices are expected to remain at current levels over the next two years resulting in negative spark spreads and hence the power plants using LNG only will even have difficulties recovering their SRMC. This has raised doubts over the sustainability of the new entrants.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 4.13 MB 32 Pages, 8 Tables, 35 Figures
  • Singapore Power Data.xls XLS - 878.60 KB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Electricity prices drop below SRMC of power plants
    • Negative spark spread over the next couple of years
    • Reserve Margin increase further
    • Environmental policy and renewables In this report we introduce a new section covering the renewable and environmental policies in the country and status of renewable growth along with future prospects. In addition, we present the contribution to national emissions from the power sector and analyse the impact of COP21 commitments made by the government for reducing emissions.
    • Data Summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key stakeholders
      • Key offices
    • Energy Policy
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Pricing
    • Power Market Regulation
      • Market operator
      • Generation
      • Transmission & Distribution
      • Retail
      • Regulation
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Policy
    • Renewables
    • COP21 INDC target
      • COP21 INDC target
  • Supply
    • Capacity & reserve margin
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost By Technology
    • New-build economics
      • Screening Curves
    • Short Run Marginal Cost Analysis
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Singapore Power Transmission Infrastructure
      • Power Infrastructure - Current
      • Power Infrastructure - Map
      • Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • GDP Growth and Power Sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
    • Captive power
      • Captive Power Demand
      • Current and Future Captive Capacity
  • Prices
    • End-user tariffs
    • Power Price Forecast
      • Average Annual System Short-run Cost
      • Spark-spread
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP Sensitivity on Gas Demand

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Singapore power available capacity
    • Singapore power market balance
    • Executive summary: Table 3
    • Key changes to power analysis from H2 2015 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP Forecast - Singapore
  • Policy and regulation
    • Singapore’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Singapore power market value chain
    • Major Energy Legislation
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
    • Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
    • Capacity: renewables by fuel
    • Generation: renewables by fuel
    • Environmental policy and renewables: Image 5
  • Supply
    • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
    • Capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
    • Costs: Image 2
    • Singapore 2030 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Singapore electricity infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Reserve margin with combined cycle plant at licensed capacity
    • GDP growth and power sales growth
    • Power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power import from Malaysia
    • Singapore captive power sales
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Planned and forecast captive power capacity
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Singapore wholesale and regulated retail prices
    • Singapore wholesale prices in S$ and US$
    • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Annual average price forecast
    • Annual average price by period type
    • Annual system price vs plant short run cost
    • Levelised capex vs spark spreads
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low cases
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas demand
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