Singapore power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016
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Report summary
Singapore wholesale electricity prices (WEP) have further slumped to below SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) following the commissioning of the 411 MW Tuaspring CCGT power plant. Power prices in the first three months of this year have averaged US$40/MWh. This is well below the estimated SRMC of CCGTs plants at US$50/MWh and LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) of US$65/MWh at a LNG price of 6.8/mmbtu. These prices are expected to remain at current levels over the next two years resulting in negative spark spreads and hence the power plants using LNG only will even have difficulties recovering their SRMC. This has raised doubts over the sustainability of the new entrants.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Electricity prices drop below SRMC of power plants
- Negative spark spread over the next couple of years
- Reserve Margin increase further
- Environmental policy and renewables In this report we introduce a new section covering the renewable and environmental policies in the country and status of renewable growth along with future prospects. In addition, we present the contribution to national emissions from the power sector and analyse the impact of COP21 commitments made by the government for reducing emissions.
- Data Summary
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Economic outlook
- Economic Indicators
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Policy and regulation
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Key stakeholders
- Key offices
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Energy Policy
- Competition
- Fuel mix
- Pricing
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Power Market Regulation
- Market operator
- Generation
- Transmission & Distribution
- Retail
- Regulation
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Key stakeholders
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Environmental policy and renewables
- Policy
- Renewables
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COP21 INDC target
- COP21 INDC target
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Supply
- Capacity & reserve margin
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Costs
- Breakeven Cost By Technology
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New-build economics
- Screening Curves
- Short Run Marginal Cost Analysis
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Infrastructure
- In this section
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Singapore Power Transmission Infrastructure
- Power Infrastructure - Current
- Power Infrastructure - Map
- Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
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Demand
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Power demand
- GDP Growth and Power Sales
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Power demand
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Supply-demand balances
- Annual generation forecast
- Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
- Transmission utilisation across regions
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Captive power
- Captive Power Demand
- Current and Future Captive Capacity
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Prices
- End-user tariffs
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Power Price Forecast
- Average Annual System Short-run Cost
- Spark-spread
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Risks and uncertainties
- GDP Sensitivity on Gas Demand
Tables and charts
This report includes 43 images and tables including:
- Executive summary: Image 1
- GDP Forecast - Singapore
- Reserve margin with combined cycle plant at licensed capacity
- Prices: Image 1
- Executive summary: Image 2
- Executive summary: Image 3
- Singapore power available capacity
- Singapore power market balance
- Executive summary: Table 3
- Key changes to power analysis from H2 2015 publication:
- Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
- Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
- Capacity: renewables by fuel
- Generation: renewables by fuel
- Existing and planned capacity with peak load
- Capacity by plant type and reserve margin
- Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
- New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
- Costs: Image 2
- Singapore 2030 merit order
- Grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
- Grid generation by fuel used (%)
- Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
- Power import from Malaysia
- Singapore wholesale and regulated retail prices
- Singapore wholesale prices in S$ and US$
- GDP growth assumptions for high and low cases
- Power demand sensitivity on gas demand
- Singapore’s energy policy and regulatory structure
- Singapore power market value chain
- Major Energy Legislation
- Environmental policy and renewables: Image 5
- Singapore electricity infrastructure
- GDP growth and power sales growth
- Power sales
- Singapore captive power sales
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Planned and forecast captive power capacity
- Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
- Annual average price forecast
- Annual average price by period type
- Annual system price vs plant short run cost
- Levelised capex vs spark spreads
What's included
This report contains:
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