Commodity Market Report

Springtime upside: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook April 2018

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30 April 2018

Springtime upside: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook April 2018

Report summary

Higher forecasted loads in this outlook mostly boost heat rates and prices on average.  In particular, the combination of stronger forecast demand in ERCOT and additional changes to supply in the market have raised our near term price expectations across the ISO for this summer and next.  In the Northeast, basis in some markets have been trading at a strong premium to Henry Hub, fueled by scheduled maintenance during the April snowstorms.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Recent cold weather increasing the storage deficit
    • Stronger demand boosts generation balances
      • Demand
      • Supply
      • Generation
    • East and ERCOT
      • Prices
    • WECC
      • Demand
      • Prices
  • Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to February 2018 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to February 2018 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to February 2018 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to February 2018 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    STO Final Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 114.63 KB

  • Document

    STO Final Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 114.70 KB

  • Document

    STO Final Load Forecast ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 2.48 MB

  • Document

    STO Final Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 720.63 KB

  • Document

    STO Final Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 2.42 MB

  • Document

    STO Final Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 4 20 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 168.74 KB

  • Document

    Springtime upside: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook April 2018

    PDF 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Springtime upside: ERCOT power and renewables short term outlook April 2018

    ZIP 6.41 MB

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