Commodity market report

Stronger demand boosts some markets: ERCOT short term outlook October 2017

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Report summary

In this outlook most markets in the Eastern Interconnect see a boost to forecasted demand, although ERCOT and some markets in the WECC still saw a downward revision. The higher forecasted loads combined with lower forecast gas prices increase natural gas generation balances, and as a result prices and heat rates mostly rise. Despite lower forecasted demand in ERCOT, retirement requests for Big Brown, Monticello, and Sandow were approved, giving a boost to prices in the market as well.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 116.59 KB

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 116.65 KB

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Load Forecast ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.50 MB

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 783.78 KB

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.49 MB

  • Document

    201711 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 11 8 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 198.82 KB

  • Document

    Stronger demand boosts some markets: ERCOT short term outlook October 2017

    PDF 390.25 KB

  • Document

    Stronger demand boosts some markets: ERCOT short term outlook October 2017

    ZIP 5.70 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Supply keeps natural gas prices near current levels this winter
    • Supply will surge in 2018, but the sentiment has become more measured
    • 2019: The optimism in the global market may not benefit the US export projects
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Nuclear maintenance
    • Generation
    • Prices and heat rates
    • Supply and demand
    • Nuclear maintenance
    • Prices and generation
  • Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 1: Eastern markets fall 2017 nuclear availability
  • Figure 2: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to September 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to September 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Western markets fall 2017 nuclear availability
  • Figure 5: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to September 2017 STO)
  • Figure 6: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to September 2017 STO)

Tables

  • Figure 7: North American power generation balances and fuel prices

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