Commodity market report
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33 Pages

Thailand power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016


Thailand power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

In 2015, Thailand introduced a set of long-term energy plans, collectively known as Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint. This is the first coordinated energy plan across different government agencies, PTT and EGAT. The focus is to develop a consistent set of strategies for Thailand's future energy needs. Target goals from the Energy Efficiency Plan and Alternative Energy Development Plan are integrated as inputs to the Power Development Plan (PDP) prepared by EGAT.

Key messages:

  • EGAT to undertake direct LNG procurement
  • Extensions to expiring SPP gas-cogeneration contracts
  • Solar growth continues despite changes in tariff policy
  • Thai companies seek overseas expansions

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Thailand power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 2.08 MB 33 Pages, 4 Tables, 40 Figures
  • Thailand Power Data.xls XLS - 1.13 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • EGAT to undertake direct LNG procurement
    • Extensions to expiring SPP gas co-generation contracts
    • Solar growth continues despite change in tariff policy
    • Thai companies seek overseas expansions
    • No resolution in South Thailand power dilemma
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy policy
      • Key offices
      • Policy drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Power market regulation
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and Retail
      • Other regulations
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Renewables
      • COP21 INDC target
  • Supply
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Central Thailand
      • South Thailand
      • North Thailand
      • Northeast Thailand
      • Lao PDR
      • Other imports
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost by technology
    • New-build economics
      • New-build economics by technology
      • Screening curves
      • Short run marginal cost analysis
  • Infrastructure
    • Thailand power transmission infrastructure
    • Power infrastructure: current
    • Infrastructure: planned and possible
    • Power infrastructure maps
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • Thailand GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Intra-regional flows
    • Captive power
      • Captive power demand by region
  • Prices
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 44 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Key changes to analysis from 2015 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP Forecast: Thailand
  • Policy and regulation
    • Thailand's energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Major energy legislation
    • Thailand power market value chain
  • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Feed-in-tariffs
    • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
    • Generation: renewables vs non-renewables
    • Capacity: renewables by fuel
    • Generation: renewables by fuel
    • COP21 INDC target
    • Emissions in the power sector
    • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Supply
    • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
    • Thailand capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
    • Costs: Image 2
    • Thailand 2030 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Thailand power infrastructure
    • Central Thailand and Bangkok power infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Thailand import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Thailand captive power sales by region
    • Thailand captive power by plant type (2014*)
  • Prices
    • Thailand average power tariff (Thai Baht and US$)
    • Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual shape of power demand
    • Annual shape of hydro and gas demand
    • Projected hydro shape
    • Projected gas shape
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