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Thailand power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

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29 June 2017

Thailand power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

Report summary

Thailand has a partially liberalised power industry, with EGAT maintaining a core role in electricity generation, transmission, power purchases and system operation. The system's peak power demand reached 30.96 GW in May 2016, against a total on-grid generation capacity of 44.4 GW as of April 2017. Key topics covered in this report: Limited new opportunities for large-scale thermal projects through 2025 Renewable energy and more electricity imports seen key for Thailand to diversify fuel mix NEPC approves Krabi coal-fired plant but EGAT stays put for now New solar feed-in-tariffs for 2017 and 2018

Table of contents

    • Thailand power market at a glance
    • Key developments
      • NEPC approves Krabi coal-fired project but EGAT stays put for now
      • Feed-in-tariffs reduced by 27% for utility-scale solar
      • EGAT FSRU plans delayed from 2020 until 2024
      • Stronger renewable outlook over the forecast
    • Gas and LNG report
    • Market background
  • Economic outlook
    • Key offices
    • Market regulator
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix and renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
      • Independent power producers
      • Small power producers
      • Very small power producers
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and Retail
    • Renewables
      • COP21 INDC target
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • New projects
    • Long-term outlook and supply by region
      • Central Thailand
      • Northeast Thailand
      • North Thailand
      • South Thailand
      • Power agreements with Lao PDR and other countries
    • Power demand
      • Thailand GDP growth and power sales
      • Power demand by sector
      • Impact from distributed solar generation
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Intra-regional power transfers
    • Power infrastructure: current
    • Infrastructure: planned and possible
    • Power infrastructure maps
    • New-build economics
      • New-build economics by technology
      • Screening curves
      • Short-run marginal cost analysis
  • Prices
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast: Thailand
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Key changes to analysis from 2016 publication:
  • Thailand's energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Major energy legislation
  • Thailand's power market value chain
  • Feed-in-tariffs (2017)
  • Capacity share: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Generation share: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Generation: renewables by fuel
  • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power transmission capacity across regions
  • Thailand power infrastructure
  • Central Thailand and Bangkok power infrastructure
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Annual shape of power demand
  • Annual shape of hydro and gas generation
  • COP21 INDC target
  • Emissions in the power sector
  • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Thailand capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Reserve margin by region*
  • Available capacity by region
  • Power demand by sector
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
  • Power sales by region
  • Thailand import and intra-regional power transfers
  • Power transmission utilisation across regions
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
  • Costs: Image 2
  • Thailand 2030 merit order
  • Projected hydro shape
  • Projected gas shape

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thailand Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.06 MB

  • Document

    Thailand power and renewable markets outlook 2017

    PDF 1.88 MB

  • Document

    Thailand power and renewable markets outlook 2017

    ZIP 2.13 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 955.69 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 56.11 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 198.04 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 160.24 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 126.62 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 125.10 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 102.99 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 124.32 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 465.04 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 185.52 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 105.10 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 97.08 KB

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