Commodity Market Report
Thailand power and renewables markets long-term outlook 2019
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Report summary
Key report themes: 1) The government approved Power Development Plan for 2018-2037, and coal and wind are taking the back seat. 2) Thailand pioneers blockchain energy trade in the region but regulator could impose new fees to participants. 3) The energy regulatory commission has launched a direct PPA for capacity of 100 MW under the household solar scheme. 4) We have reduced our generic coal capacity forecast in response to the latest PDP.
Table of contents
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Key developments
- New Power Development Plan sidelines coal and wind
- Thailand pioneers blockchain energy trade in the region
- Thailand launches direct PPAs for household solar
- Gas and LNG report
- Market background
- Energy policy
- Key offices
- Market regulator
- Competition
- Fuel mix and renewables
- Pricing
- Generation
- Independent power producers
- Small power producers
- Very small power producers
- Transmission
- Distribution and retail
- Policy
- Renewables
- COP21 INDC target
- Capacity and reserve margin
- Available capacity and reserve margin
- New projects
- Long-term outlook and supply by region
- Central Thailand
- Northeast Thailand
- North Thailand
- South Thailand
- Power agreements with Lao PDR and other countries
- Power demand
- Thailand GDP growth and power sales
- Power demand by sector
- Impact from distributed solar generation
- Annual generation forecast
- Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
- Transmission utilisation across regions
- Intra-regional power transfers
- Thailand power transmission infrastructure
- Power infrastructure: current
- Infrastructure: planned and possible
- Power infrastructure maps
- Breakeven cost by technology
- New-build economics
- New-build economics by technology
- Screening curves
- Short-run marginal cost analysis
- End-user tariffs
- Average annual system short-run cost
- Breakeven cost forecast
- GDP sensitivity on gas demand
- Power seasonality
- Seasonality and gas demand swing
Tables and charts
This report includes 41 images and tables including:
- Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
- GDP forecast: Thailand
- Thailand's energy policy and regulatory structure
- Major energy legislation
- Thailand's power market value chain
- Capacity share: renewables vs non-renewables
- Generation share: renewables vs non-renewables
- Capacity: renewables by fuel
- Generation: renewables by fuel
- COP21 INDC target
- Emissions in the power sector
- Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
- Existing and planned capacity with peak load
- Thailand capacity by plant type and reserve margin
- Reserve margin by region*
- Available capacity by region
- Power demand by sector
- Power sales growth, GDP growth and electricity intensity
- Power sales by region
- Thailand grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
- Thailand grid generation by fuel used (%)
- Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
- Power transmission capacity across regions
- Thailand import and intra-regional power transfers
- Power transmission utilisation across regions
- Thailand power infrastructure
- Central Thailand and Bangkok power infrastructure
- Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
- New plant economics by technology (LRMC)
- Thailand 2020 merit order
- Thailand 2030 merit order
- Thailand 2040 merit order
- Thailand average power tariff (Thai baht and US dollar)
- Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
- Average end-user power breakeven cost
- GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
- Power demand sensitivity on gas
- Annual shape of power demand
- Annual shape of hydro and gas generation
- Projected hydro shape
- Projected gas shape
What's included
This report contains:
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