Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Thailand power markets long-term full report H1 2014


Thailand power markets long-term full report H1 2014

Report summary

As the political crisis takes toll on the economy, the power demand growth is expected to stay low for 2014.  Lower power demand might reduce the LNG demand but the power tariffs set for May to August 2014 have gone up by approximately 21% as the cost of gas to power rose. The role of coal in the new PDP that awaits cabinet's approval will be carefully watched as this will dictate the power affordability in the long-term.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Thailand power markets long-term full report H1 2014 PDF - 777.88 KB 28 Pages, 7 Tables, 32 Figures
  • Thailand Power Data.xls XLS - 968.39 KB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Data summary
      • EGAT is continually revising down its 2014 demand forecast
      • Gulf Energy has bagged 5400 MW gas projects but timeline for completion is uncertain
      • Impact of LNG is already felt in the power tariffs
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Key Offices
    • Policy drivers
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and Retail
    • Regulations
  • Supply
    • Capacity & reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Central Thailand
      • South Thailand
      • North Thailand
      • North East Thailand
      • Laos
      • Other imports
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
  • Infrastructure
    • Thailand power transmission infrastructure
    • Power infrastructure - current
    • Infrastructure – planned & possible
    • Power infrastructure maps
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • Thailand GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
    • Intra-regional flows
    • Captive Power Demand by Region
    • Current captive and SPP grid capacity
  • Prices
    • In this section
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • In this section
    • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 39 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Thailand power available capacity
    • Thailand power market balance
    • Thailand gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2013 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2014 GDP Forecast - Thailand
  • Policy and regulation
    • Major Energy Legislation
    • Thailand’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
    • Thailand capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2012 prices
    • Thailand 2015 merit order
    • Thailand 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Thailand Power Infrastructure
    • Central Thailand & Bangkok Power Infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power transmission capacity across regions
    • Thailand import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Thailand captive power sales by region
    • Thailand captive power by plant type (2011*)
  • Prices
    • Thailand average power tariff *(Thai Baht and US$)
    • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual Shape of Power Demand
    • Annual Shape of Hydro and Gas Demand
    • Projected hydro shape
    • Projected gas shape
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