Commodity market report
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32 Pages

Thailand power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Thailand power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

Thailand is facing the dilemma of rising power tariffs due to the prospect of renewables, imported gas from Myanmar and more expensive LNG.  To keep tariffs affordable, coal is the most likely option that can be used to stabilise power tariffs.  To maintain the tariffs at current levels, we forecast that the contribution of coal in the plant capacity mix should top 20% by 2025 and 30% by 2030.

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Thailand power markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 1.68 MB 32 Pages, 8 Tables, 34 Figures
  • Thailand Power Data.xls XLS - 985.39 KB
  • Appendix - Thailand power markets long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 155.09 KB
  • Storyboard - Thailand gas and power market long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 1.36 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Coal is the most likely option that can be used to stabilise the power tariffs
    • Despite higher cost, gas remains the main contributor to generation.
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Key Offices
    • Policy drivers
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and Retail
    • Regulations
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • Available capacity and reserve margin
    • Central Thailand
    • South Thailand
    • North Thailand
    • North East Thailand
    • Laos
    • Other imports
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
    • Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Power infrastructure - current
    • Infrastructure – planned & possible
    • Power infrastructure maps
  • Demand
    • In this section
    • Thailand GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
    • Intra-regional flows
    • Captive Power Demand by Region
    • Current captive and SPP grid capacity
  • Prices
    • In this section
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • In this section
    • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 42 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Thailand power available capacity
    • Thailand power market balance
    • Thailand gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2013 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP Forecast - Thailand
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Policy and regulation
    • Major Energy Legislation
    • Thailand’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
    • Thailand capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2012 prices
    • Screening curve with gas at US$8.43/mmbtu
    • Screening curve with gas at US$8.91/mmbtu
    • Thailand 2015 merit order
    • Thailand 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • Thailand Power Infrastructure
    • Central Thailand & Bangkok Power Infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Thailand grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power transmission capacity across regions
    • Thailand import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Thailand captive power sales by region
    • Thailand captive power by plant type (2011*)
  • Prices
    • Thailand average power tariff *(Thai Baht and US$)
    • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual Shape of Power Demand
    • Annual Shape of Hydro and Gas Demand
    • Projected hydro shape
    • Projected gas shape
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