Commodity market report

United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

The development of power supply in the UK is shaped by the market’s exposure to the loss of coal-fired generation, as well as continued growth in renewables, particularly wind. The market is impacted perhaps more than any other in Western Europe by EU emissions controls, particularly the Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) - although the influence of this measure is now all-but played out and the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED).

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    UK Power H1 2015.xls

    XLS 1.15 MB

  • Document

    United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 405.13 KB

  • Document

    United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 752.63 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 101.15 KB

  • Document


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  • Document


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  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 106.46 KB

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Table of contents

    • Gas and renewable supply growth as coal retirements mount
    • Market reform drives progress towards policy goals
    • Capacity contracts offer a new source of revenue to flexible supply
    • Slow progress on new nuclear
    • Wholesale power prices challenge unsubsidised investments
    • Links to Related Reports:
      • Commercial/Other
      • Industrial
      • Losses and Energy Industries
      • Coal and oil
      • The Industrial Emissions Directive
      • Emissions Performance Standard
      • Gas
      • Nuclear - the existing fleet
      • Nuclear - new build prospects
    • Annual generation by fuel
    • Interconnectors
    • Recent developments
    • Forecast additions
    • Potential future projects
  • Trade

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:


  • Power demand
  • Net imports to the UK
  • UK power supply by source
  • Existing capacity
  • Forecast new capacity
  • Annual generation by fuel
  • Generation output - change between forecasts
  • Annual wholesale prices forecast, new entrant cost and forward curve
  • Emissions costs - EU ETS and Carbon Price Floor
  • Incremental cost of production due to CPF
  • Clean spark and dark spreads based on GB cost of emissions


  • Existing transmission links between UK countries
  • Interconnectors
  • Nuclear closure assumptions

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