Commodity market report
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37 Pages

United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

The development of power generation in the UK will be shaped by the market’s significant exposure to the closure of large quantities of ageing coal and oil-fired capacity in the medium to long-term, as well as continuing growth in the contribution from renewable sources, particularly wind.  The market is impacted perhaps more than any other in Western Europe by EU emissions legislation, influencing the operation of coal and oil-fired plants. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 1.45 MB 37 Pages, 17 Tables, 20 Figures
  • EGAPS UK Power.xls XLS - 1.77 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Introduction
      • Renewables obligation
      • ROC price forecast
      • Feed-in tariffs
      • Climate Change Levy
      • Green Investment Bank
      • Grid access development
      • Feed-in tariffs with contracts for difference
      • Carbon price floor
      • Emissions performance standard (EPS)
      • Capacity market
      • Levy control framework
      • Decarbonisation target
  • Demand
    • Forecast power demand by sector
      • Domestic
      • Industrial
      • Commercial/other
      • Energy industries
      • Losses
  • Supply
    • Existing capacity
      • Mothballed capacity
        • Residual LCPD derogation hours (as of October 2013)
      • Gas
      • Nuclear
        • Renewables
      • Total installed capacity and reserve margins
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation by fuel
      • Annual generation by fuel
      • Renewable power generation targets and forecast
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing transmission links between UK countries
    • Interconnectors
  • Trade
    • Net imports to the UK
  • Prices
    • Annual power prices
    • Carbon Price Floor and power prices

In this report there are 37 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Fuel mix of power supply
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators (2000-2030)
    • UK GDP trends
  • Market structure
    • UK power network
    • Market share of UK generation capacity in 2013*
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Key targets
    • Renewables obligation trajectories and buy-out prices
    • Policy and regulation: Table 4
    • Policy and regulation: Table 5
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Confirmed strike prices (December 2013)
    • Carbon Price Support Rates as of April 2013 (real 2013)
    • Emissions performance standard compliance - examples by plant type
  • Demand
    • Power demand
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Generation mothballing
    • Existing capacity
    • Forecast new capacity
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Remaining supply capability of LCPD opted-out coal plants
    • Nuclear closure assumptions
    • Operational nuclear capacity by year
    • Total installed capacity
    • Generation capacity and peak demand
    • Reserve margin
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Generation output - change between forecasts
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
  • Prices
    • Annual wholesale prices forecast, new entrant cost and forward curve
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Clean spark and dark spreads - fuel and emissions
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