Commodity market report
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37 Pages

United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

The development of power generation in the UK will be shaped by the market’s significant exposure to the closure of large quantities of ageing coal and oil-fired capacity in the medium to long-term, as well as continuing growth in the contribution from renewable sources, particularly wind.  The market is impacted perhaps more than any other in Western Europe by EU emissions legislation, influencing the operation of coal and oil-fired plants. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • United Kingdom power markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 650.21 KB 37 Pages, 16 Tables, 20 Figures
  • UK Power H2 2014.xls XLS - 1.46 MB


The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Gas and renewable supply growth as coal retirements mount
      • UK power supply by source
    • Market reform drives progress towards policy goals
    • Capacity contracts offer a new source of revenue to flexible supply
    • Support for new nuclear - approved
    • Wholesale power prices continue to challenge otherwise unsupported investments
      • Base load clean spark and dark spreads
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - UK
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Introduction
      • Key offices
      • Key targets
    • Power market arrangements
      • Renewable support mechanisms
        • The Renewables Obligation
        • ROC price forecast
        • Market value of ROCs (on an April to March annual basis)
        • Feed-in tariffs (small-scale renewables)
        • Climate Change Levy
        • Green Investment Bank
        • Grid access development
        • Electricity Market Reform
          • Feed-in tariffs with contracts for difference
            • Confirmed strike prices (December 2013)
          • Carbon price floor (CPF)
            • Carbon Price Support Rates as of April 2013 (real 2014)
          • Emissions performance standard (EPS)
          • Capacity contracts
          • Levy control framework
          • Decarbonisation target
  • Demand
    • Forecast power demand by sector
      • Residential
      • Industrial
      • Commercial/other
      • Energy industries
      • Losses
  • Supply
    • Existing capacity
      • Mothballed capacity
        • Generation mothballing
        • Capacity developments and forecast
          • Coal and oil
            • Residual LCPD derogation hours (as of November 2014)
            • The Industrial Emissions Directive
            • Emissions Performance Standard blocks new coal without CCS
          • Gas
          • Nuclear - the existing fleet
            • Nuclear closure assumptions
          • Nuclear - new build prospects
          • Renewables
            • Expanding grid infrastructure to accommodate renewable growth
            • Biomass
            • Total installed capacity and reserve margins
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation by fuel
      • Annual generation by fuel
      • Renewable power supply - UK targets and Wood Mackenzie's forecast
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing transmission links between UK countries
    • Interconnectors
  • Trade
    • Net imports to the UK
  • Prices
    • Annual power prices
      • Annual wholesale prices forecast, new entrant cost and forward curve
    • Carbon Price Floor and power prices
      • Clean spark and dark spreads based on GB cost of emissions

In this report there are 36 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Market structure
    • UK power transmission networks
    • Market share of UK generation capacity in 2013*
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
    • Renewables obligation trajectories and buy-out prices
    • Policy and regulation: Table 4
    • Policy and regulation: Table 5
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 6
    • Policy and regulation: Table 7
    • Emissions performance standard compliance - examples by plant type
  • Demand
    • Power demand
  • Supply
    • Generating plant capacity as of 31 December 2013
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Existing capacity
    • Forecast new capacity
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Remaining supply capability of LCPD opted-out coal plants
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Total installed capacity
    • Generation capacity and peak demand
    • Reserve margin
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Generation output - change between forecasts
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Image 4
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