Commodity Market Report
US Decarbonization gains at risk?: WECC Power & Renewables long-term outlook H1 2017 No Carbon case
Report summary
In spite of the current US presidential administration’s policies on Climate Change and Carbon regulations, Wood Mackenzie’s H1 2017 Base Case still represented an assumption of long-term carbon reduction policy consistent with the global Wood Mackenzie view. However, our Carbon Policy case is one of many possible futures that might unfold to accelerate long-term decarbonization. Yet there is still some uncertainty around current political rhetoric and if this can deter further decarbonization efforts. A future without any US federal carbon pricing effectively assumes a world in which Federal climate change efforts are tabled and power sector carbon emissions are allowed to continue to grow. In our No Carbon Case, we assume no carbon policy at the Federal level but still maintain state and regional CO2 markets such as California-AB32, RGGI and Canadian initiatives. The lack of a carbon price has significant impacts on power dispatch, capacity buildout and power pricing.
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