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Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

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08 June 2016

Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

Vietnam has finally released its updated Power Development Plan VII. The Plan continues to place a firm emphasis on coal, as the cheapest way to meet Vietnam's urgent power requirements. However, the plan also anticipates a growing role for renewables. Wood Mackenzie is more cautious about capacity growth than the PDP VII. Still we forecast that gas and coal capacity will double and triple respectively by 2030. Crucially the plan is more positive about the role and need for foreign investment. This recognises the power crunch facing Vietnam and the extreme financial constraints that PVN and EVN are operating under. However the investment climate in Vietnam will need to improve significantly to facilitate this investment. In this report, we introduce a new section covering the renewable and environmental policies in the country and status of renewable growth along with future prospects.

Table of contents

    • Shortages to continue until 2019 in South Vietnam
    • Revised Power Development Plan includes solar and call for greater IPP and foreign investment
    • Gas and coal capacity (and demand) will grow significantly with imports playing an increasing role
    • Environmental policy and renewables
  • Economic outlook
    • Energy policy
      • Key offices
      • Policy drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Key players
    • Power market regulation
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and retail
    • Policy
    • Renewable energy
    • COP21 INDC target
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Forecast new grid capacity by region
        • North Vietnam
        • Central Vietnam
        • South Vietnam
        • Lao PDR and Cambodia
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
    • Vietnam power transmission infrastructure
      • Power infrastructure: current
      • Power infrastructure: planned and possible
      • Power infrastructure maps
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Coal and gas demand
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Captive power
      • Captive power demand by region
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
      • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast: Vietnam
  • Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 2
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 4
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 5
  • Emissions in the power sector
  • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
  • Screening curve with gas at US$8.98/mmbtu
  • Screening curve with gas at US$10.08/mmbtu
  • Vietnam 2020 merit order
  • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Coal demand in power (bbtud)
  • Gas demand in power (bbtud)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power transmission capacity across regions
  • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
  • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
  • Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Annual shape: rainfall, hydro and power demand
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
  • Major energy legislation
  • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
  • Power sales by region
  • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
  • Power transmission utilisation across regions
  • Vietnam captive power sales by region
  • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
  • Projected hydro shape
  • Projected gas shape
  • Reserve margin by region
  • Available capacity by region

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Vietnam Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.09 MB

  • Document

    Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 961.31 KB

  • Document

    Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 1.20 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 84.13 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 78.33 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 298.83 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 100.32 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 128.49 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 190.49 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 101.23 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 294.32 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 144.01 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 110.16 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 104.37 KB

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