Commodity market report
| |
33 Pages

Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016


Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

Vietnam has finally released its updated Power Development Plan VII. The Plan continues to place a firm emphasis on coal, as the cheapest way to meet Vietnam's urgent power requirements. However, the plan also anticipates a growing role for renewables. Wood Mackenzie is more cautious about capacity growth than the PDP VII. Still we forecast that gas and coal capacity will double and triple respectively by 2030. Crucially the plan is more positive about the role and need for foreign investment. This recognises the power crunch facing Vietnam and the extreme financial constraints that PVN and EVN are operating under. However the investment climate in Vietnam will need to improve significantly to facilitate this investment. In this report, we introduce a new section covering the renewable and environmental policies in the country and status of renewable growth along with future prospects.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 961.31 KB 33 Pages, 3 Tables, 44 Figures
  • Vietnam Power Data.xls XLS - 1.09 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Shortages to continue until 2019 in South Vietnam
    • Revised Power Development Plan includes solar and call for greater IPP and foreign investment
    • Gas and coal capacity (and demand) will grow significantly with imports playing an increasing role
    • Environmental policy and renewables
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy policy
      • Key offices
      • Policy drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Key players
    • Power market regulation
      • Generation
      • Transmission
      • Distribution and retail
  • Environmental policy & renewables
    • Policy
    • Renewable energy
    • COP21 INDC target
  • Supply
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Forecast new grid capacity by region
        • North Vietnam
        • Central Vietnam
        • South Vietnam
        • Lao PDR and Cambodia
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
  • Infrastructure
    • Vietnam power transmission infrastructure
      • Power infrastructure: current
      • Power infrastructure: planned and possible
      • Power infrastructure maps
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Coal and gas demand
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Captive power
      • Captive power demand by region
  • Prices
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
      • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 47 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast: Vietnam
  • Policy and regulation
    • Major energy legislation
    • Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Environmental policy & renewables
    • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
    • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 2
    • Capacity: renewables by fuel
    • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 4
    • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 5
    • Emissions in the power sector
    • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Supply
    • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
    • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
    • Screening curve with gas at US$8.98/mmbtu
    • Screening curve with gas at US$10.08/mmbtu
    • Vietnam 2020 merit order
    • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Infrastructure
    • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Coal demand in power (bbtud)
    • Gas demand in power (bbtud)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power transmission capacity across regions
    • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Vietnam captive power sales by region
  • Prices
    • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
    • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
    • Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual shape: rainfall, hydro and power demand
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
    • Projected hydro shape
    • Projected gas shape
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.