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Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

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03 July 2017

Vietnam power and renewable markets long-term outlook 2017

Report summary

Vietnam's power industry is in the midst of restructuring and market liberalisation reforms. The state-owned electricity utility EVN currently operates across the generation, transmission and distribution sector through its various subsidiaries. The government plans to divest EVN's stake in its generation subsidiaries to 51% over time. Key topics covered in this report: Implementation agreements concluded for Nghi Son 2 and Vung Ang 2 coal-fired BOT projects Vietnam switches from coal to gas for the next stage of power capacity growth Solar feed-in-tariffs (finally) approved Liberalisation status update for the power market and impending IPOs for EVN Genco 3 and PV Power

Table of contents

    • Vietnam power market at a glance
    • Key developments
      • Current South Vietnam power situation
      • Implementation agreements concluded for foreign-led coal-fired power projects
      • Gas power projects for the next stage of capacity growth
      • MOIT approves feed-in tariff for solar projects
      • EVN Genco 3 and PV Power preparing for initial public offering
    • Gas and LNG report
    • Market background
  • Economic outlook
    • Energy policy
      • Key offices
      • Policy drivers
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix and renewables
      • Pricing
    • Key players
    • Renewable generation
      • COP21 INDC target
    • Generation
      • Wholesale market operations
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and retail
    • Capacity and reserve margin
      • Available capacity and reserve margin
      • Urgent power projects update
      • Forecast new grid capacity by region
        • North Vietnam
        • Central Vietnam
        • South Vietnam
        • Lao PDR and Cambodia
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
    • Annual generation forecast
    • Plant utilisation (capacity factor)
    • Transmission utilisation across regions
      • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Vietnam power transmission infrastructure
      • Power infrastructure: current
      • Power infrastructure: planned and possible
      • Power infrastructure maps
    • Breakeven cost by technology
    • New-build economics
      • New-build economics by technology
      • Screening curves
    • Short-run marginal cost analysis
    • End-user tariffs
    • Average annual system short-run cost
    • Breakeven cost forecast
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand
      • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
    • Power seasonality
      • Seasonality and gas demand swing

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • GDP forecast: Vietnam
  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Key changes to analysis from 2016 publication
  • Vietnam's energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Feed-in-tariffs (2017, US¢/kWh)
  • Capacity: renewables vs non-renewables
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 2
  • Capacity: renewables by fuel
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 4
  • Vietnam power market value chain
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
  • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
  • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
  • Power transmission capacity across regions
  • Breakeven cost (LRMC) based on technology (2020 prices)
  • Vietnam 2020 merit order
  • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
  • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
  • Average annual short-term generation costs by system and plant type
  • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Power demand sensitivity on gas
  • Annual shape: rainfall, hydro and power demand
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
  • Major energy legislation
  • Environmental policy & renewables: Image 5
  • Emissions in the power sector
  • Contribution of gas and coal in the power sector
  • Existing and planned capacity with peak load
  • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
  • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
  • Power sales by region
  • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
  • Power transmission utilisation across regions
  • Coal demand in power (bbtud)
  • Gas demand in power (bbtud)
  • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build
  • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
  • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
  • Projected hydro shape
  • Projected gas shape
  • Reserve margin by region
  • Available capacity by region

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Vietnam Power Data.xls

    XLS 1.08 MB

  • Document

    Vietnam power and renewable markets outlook 2017

    PDF 1.93 MB

  • Document

    Vietnam power and renewable markets outlook 2017

    ZIP 2.19 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.11 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 56.12 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 257.13 KB

  • Document

    Environmental policy and renewables

    PDF 115.82 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 142.12 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 123.82 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 100.60 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 129.57 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 293.75 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 183.70 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 109.50 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 105.67 KB

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