Commodity market report
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36 Pages

Vietnam power markets long-term outlook H2 2013


Vietnam power markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

Since 2000, Vietnam's cumulative power demand growth (CAGR) has topped 13%.  This growth is expected to remain close to 9% until 2020 before declining to 6% from 2020 to 2030. Vietnam is struggling to deliver power projects on time to meet this demand growth and some drastic measures may be required from the government to get out of the impending power crunch.

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Vietnam power markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 1.68 MB 36 Pages, 8 Tables, 35 Figures
  • Appendix - Vietnam power markets long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 138.95 KB
  • Vietnam Power Data.xls XLS - 853.36 KB
  • Storyboard - Vietnam gas and power market long-term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 741.87 KB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Power deficit will prolong if project delays continue
    • Diesel consumption to increase
    • Power tariff increased
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP Forecast - Vietnam
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Key Offices
    • Policy Drivers
    • Competition
    • Fuel mix
    • Renewables
    • Pricing
    • Generation
    • Transmission
    • Distribution and Retail
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • Available Capacity and Reserve Margin
    • Forecast New Grid Capacity By Region
      • North Vietnam
      • Central Vietnam
      • South Vietnam
      • Laos and Cambodia
  • Costs
    • In this section
    • New-build economics by technology
    • Screening curves
    • Sensitivity on gas breakeven prices by technology
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Power Infrastructure - Current
    • Power Infrastructure – Planned & Possible
    • Power Infrastructure Maps
  • Demand
    • Power demand
      • Vietnam GDP growth and power sales
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
    • Import and intra-regional flows
    • Captive Power Demand by Region
  • Prices
    • In this section
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • In this section
    • Seasonality and gas demand swing

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Vietnam power available capacity
    • Vietnam power market balance
    • Vietnam gas demand by sector
    • Key changes to analysis from H1 2013 publication:
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Economic Indicators (2000-2030)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Major Energy Legislation
    • Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Existing and Planned capacity with Peak Load
    • Vietnam capacity by plant type and reserve margin
    • Reserve margin by region
    • Available capacity by region
  • Costs
    • Breakeven Cost (LRMC) Based on Technology (2020 prices)
    • New plant economics by technology (LRMC) for new-build using real levelised 2012 prices
    • Screening curve with gas at US$9.26/mmbtu
    • Screening curve with gas at US$9.61/mmbtu
    • Vietnam 2015 merit order
    • Vietnam 2025 merit order
  • Infrastructure
    • North Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • Central Vietnam electricity infrastructure
    • South Vietnam electricity infrastructure
  • Demand
    • Power sales growth, GDP growth & electricity intensity
    • Power sales by region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (TWh)
    • Vietnam grid generation by fuel used (%)
    • Annual capacity factor by plant type (% utilisation)
    • Power transmission capacity across regions
    • Vietnam import and intra-regional power transfers
    • Power transmission utilisation across regions
    • Vietnam captive power sales by region
  • Prices
    • EVN regulated retail prices in VND per kWh
    • EVN average retail prices in VND and US$ per MWh
    • Average annual short term generation costs by system and plant type
    • Average end-user power breakeven cost
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Coal growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Coal demand sensitivity on gas in the power sector
    • Annual Shape - Rainfall, hydro and power demand
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 6
    • Projected Hydro Shape
    • Projected Gas Shape
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