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WECC power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

Electricity demand has faced strong headwinds over the past 7 years. However 2015 may be a tipping point that sees demand growth accelerate. Nonetheless shale gas plays continue to exceed prior expectations putting downward pressure on prices. This and changing public sentiment have eroded support for new coal and nuclear units. The move to natural gas and renewables is causing changes to the very definition of reliability and is transforming capacity markets and compensation in the region.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    WECC Regional Market Overview.pdf

    PDF 2.79 MB

  • Document

    WECC power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 17.23 MB

  • Document

    naps lto exec summary h2 2014.pdf

    PDF 2.47 MB

  • Document

    NAPS Modeling and Reporting Enhancements H2 2014.pdf

    PDF 49.25 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Capacity Prices WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 580.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Clean Equipment Data WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 311.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Coal Retirements WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 110.00 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 330.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Delivered Fuel Prices Real WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 329.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Nominal WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 133.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Emission Prices Real WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 133.50 KB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Load Forecast WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 6.43 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO MacroEconomics Assumptions WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 1.79 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 13.73 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 13.73 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Renewable Energy Credit Prices WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 4.53 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO State RPS Targets WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 1.48 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Supply Demand Energy WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 2.73 MB

  • Document

    NAPS LTO Transmission Expansion WECC 11 30 2014.xls

    XLS 96.00 KB

  • Document

    WECC power markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 1.91 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 75.25 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 1.00 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 197.26 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 159.47 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 185.00 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 72.29 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 499.31 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Policy and regulation
  • Demand
  • Costs
  • Supply
  • Trade
  • Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

Images

  • Figure 1: CPP Compliance Timeline
  • Figure 2: GDP growth and electric demand growth linkage
  • Figure 3: State Retail Sales: Percentage above/below pre-recession levels
  • Figure 4: Domestic Energy and its impacts : Resurgence of Industrial Demand
  • Figure 5: Current demand response saturation by market as percent of peak
  • Figure 6: Distributed Generation Forecast
  • Figure 13: Comparison of Wood Mackenzie assumed coal retirements over previous forecasts
  • Figure 14: Installed wind capability
  • Figure 15: Large Scale Solar
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Figure 18: Changes in generation by region 2014-2035
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Figure 20: Change in regional emissions
  • Figure 21: Regional supply and demand balances
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Figure 23: New England Surplus reserve margin
  • Figure 24: Capacity Price projection for ISO-NE Capacity Zones
  • Prices: Image 4
  • Figure 26: NYISO Cap Price forecast
  • Figure 27: PJM & MISO Supply Demand Balances
  • Figure 28: MISO and PJM Prices
  • Figure 29: California resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 30: ERCOT resource economics for new generating capacity
  • Figure 7: Henry Hub Price Forecast (H2 2014 vs H1 2014)
  • Figure 9: FOB coal price forecast (Real 2014 US$)
  • Figure 10: Base Case assumed carbon price
  • Figure 11: Coal Gas Parity
  • Costs: Image 5

Tables

  • Prices: Table 1
  • Table 3: NYISO ICAP Parameters
  • Policy and regulation: Table 1

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