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8 Pages

WECC power markets short-term outlook September 2016


WECC power markets short-term outlook September 2016

Report summary

Overall loads in this outlook are forecast approximately one percent lower through 2018 relative to our previous update.  Improvements in demand, higher gas prices next year, and a projected round of coal retirements  help stabilize prices in ERCOT.  The overhang of new combined cycle build-out continues to keep pressure on prices in PJM.  In the WECC, hydro generation is altering its profile to minimize solar and wind curtailments impacting fossil fired generation balances.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • WECC power markets short-term outlook September 2016 PDF - 360.28 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • NAPS STO STV WECC 9 30 2016.xls XLS - 27.19 MB

Description

The power sector is rapidly transitioning to a cleaner generation mix supported by technological and regulatory changes. Regional markets and structures are adjusting to these new realities with implications on fuel demand, commodity pricing and asset values.

This Power Markets Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand and price fundamentals, as well as the regulatory and market issues affecting regional power markets.

Use this report to examine key issues driving regulatory and economic trends and identify future growth opportunities in regional power markets.

Wood Mackenzie's detailed analysis and reliable market forecasts give you a strong foundation for your investment decisions and corporate planning. Our experienced power research analysts use high-quality proprietary gas, coal and oil markets research to help you unlock power market fundamentals and identify future growth opportunities.

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
    • Still bullish for the winter
    • Short coal position could support prices in 2017
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Changes in GDP growth expectations impact demand forecast
      • Demand
      • Generation
    • Fundamentals mostly poorer on weaker demand and lower gas prices this month
    • WECC
      • Demand
      • Hydro
      • Natural gas prices
  • Scenario Overview

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Fundamentals
  • Generation balances and prices
    • Generation balances and prices: Image 1
    • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to August 2016 STO)
    • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to August 2016 STO)
    • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to August 2016 STO)
  • Scenario Overview
    • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
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