Commodity Market Report

Winter storms in: ERCOT short term outlook December 2017

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12 January 2018

Winter storms in: ERCOT short term outlook December 2017

Report summary

With strong winter weather setting into a number of markets this year, generation balances have been sharply higher the first part of 2018 relative to last year. Average demand across New York, New England, and PJM has been more than 15-20 percent higher, respectively. In the South, average demand in some markets has been even more markedly higher. Higher demand and gas prices have resulted in stronger power pricing to start the year as well.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Winter has not left
      • Supply will ramp up, but Haynesville is still the wild card
    • Supply
    • Generation
    • Prices and heat rates
    • Supply
    • Demand
    • Prices and generation
  • Scenario Overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Figure 5: North American power generation balances and fuel prices
  • Figure 1: Changes in Eastern power market fundamentals (Relative to October 2017 STO)
  • Figure 2: Relative changes in Eastern markets’ power price metrics (Relative to October 2017 STO)
  • Figure 3: Changes in WECC power market fundamentals (Relative to October 2017 STO)
  • Figure 4: Relative changes in WECC markets’ power price metrics (Relative to October 2017 STO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 232.39 KB

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 218.80 KB

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Load Forecast ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 2.50 MB

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 743.94 KB

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 5.74 MB

  • Document

    201712 STO Base Case Short Term Fundamentals ERCOT 12 28 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 167.10 KB

  • Document

    Winter storms in: ERCOT short term outlook December 2017

    ZIP 6.63 MB

  • Document

    winter storms in- ercot short term outlook december 2017 pr.pdf

    PDF 809.22 KB

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