Commodity Market Report

Belgium downstream oil long-term outlook

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12 June 2020

Belgium downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

The Belgian oil products market is part of the Antwerp/ Rotterdam/ Amsterdam (ARA) oil refining, trading and storage hub. Entry barriers are therefore low and access to product supply relatively unconstrained. Refined products can be sourced either from the Total and ExxonMobil refineries at Antwerp or moved into Belgium by barge from refineries located in the Netherlands. The Belgian oil market is mature across most sectors with little or no long-term oil demand growth anticipated. Fuel prices are underpinned by the government-run ‘Contrat Programme' maximum price formula. Fuel retailers are therefore focusing on optimising the size and location of their network. The growth of the automat sector is a key market driver, offering discounted prices in comparison to full-service stations. Companies are also aiming to boost their revenues from non-fuel services at full-service stations. There is also potential in electromobility as the number EVs are still relatively low.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
    • Vehicle fleet
  • Gasoline
  • Diesel/gas oil
  • Jet kerosene
  • Fuel oil
    • Fuel duty and other taxes
    • Product quality
    • Energy transition
  • Overall position - net exporter
    • Volumes
    • Overall network development
    • Hypermarket fuel outlets
    • International oil majors
    • Independent groups
    • EG Group/European Forecourt Retail Group (EFR)
    • MAES Energy & Mobility
    • Network efficiency
    • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
    • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial fuels
    • Motor fuels (gasoline and diesel)
    • Industrial/domestic gas oil
    • Aviation kerosene
    • Heavy fuel oil
    • LPG
    • Lubricants
    • Bitumen
    • Contrat Programme maximum fuel price formation
    • Retail fuels marketing
    • Commercial fuels marketing
  • Marketing gross fuel margins
  • Marketing net profitability
  • Distribution of oil products
    • Independent storage facilities
  • Crude oil delivery
    • Refining overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand by product
  • Demand by sector
  • Gasoil and diesel demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Demand forecast
  • Key trading partners
  • Gasoline - net exporter
  • Jet/kero - balanced
  • Diesel/gasoil - balanced
  • Fuel oil - balanced
  • Annual gross fuel marketing margins
  • Main products: annual average unit gross margins
  • Unit net margins
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure
  • Crude input slate
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Trade balance
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Retail network size
  • Retail outlets by brand
  • Retail market shares
  • Network size and throughput per site
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial diesel volumes
  • Retail gasoline 95RON E10 price formation 2019
  • Retail diesel B7 price formation 2019
  • Independent storage facilities in Belgium

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Belgium downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.71 MB