Could the return of Iranian sour barrels provide sweeter European refining margins?
The removal of sanctions on Iran increases the supply of medium crudes, which could increase the Urals – Brent differential so benefiting European refiners. A historical review suggests the volumes of incremental Iranian exports are insufficient to widen the Urals – Brent differential, particularly when the optimal export market remains Asia. European refiners could benefit if Iran decides that diverting existing volumes to Europe to re-establish relations is a strategic imperative.
Table of contents
Historical Urals - Brent differential
Iranian Crude Export Growth
Commercial optimisation: Asia v Europe
Outlook for 2016
Key risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes 4 images and tables including: