Commodity market report
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69 Pages

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook 2016

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

We expect moderate growth in German motor fuel demand in 2016 however from 2017 onwards demand will decline. Diesel will decline at a relatively slow rate but the pace of decline will be driven by the continued erosion of gasoline demand. The price sensitivity of the German consumer will continue to benefit discount brands while the integrated majors are likely to continue to focus on further reducing costs, growing retail non-fuel income and building customer loyalty through promotions and incentives. Retail fuel margins look set to remain among the lowest in Europe, with the growth of non-oil income expected to support net profitability and go some way to prevent the need for large scale service station closures.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Germany downstream oil long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 982.50 KB 69 Pages, 32 Tables, 20 Figures


The long-term outlook for the fuels marketing sector is influenced by many factors: oil product demand, the market structure, key companies and downstream infrastructure developments to name a few.

This long-term outlook report provides a country update of demand trends and an assessment of the key players and assets serving the market.

The report is based on in-depth research about oil product demand, individual market participants and assets and helps downstream operators, traders and financial institutions determine product trading strategies, optimise their assets and identify attractive investment opportunities.

With over 20 years of experience in the refining industry, Wood Mackenzie is a trusted global leader with a reputation for producing consistently reliable information. Our senior analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They use detailed research data to forecast, benchmark and recognise trends that will help both new and existing participants identify opportunities and avoid risks.

  • Executive summary
    • Market drivers
    • Outlook
  • Demand
    • Gasoline
    • Jet kerosene
    • Gas/diesel oil
    • Fuel oil
  • Policy and regulation
    • Regulatory issues
    • Product quality
  • Trade
  • Key companies
    • Structure of the oil products market
      • Structure of German oil products market 2015
    • Company positions in Germany
      • BP (Aral)
      • Shell
      • Total
      • ExxonMobil (Esso)
      • Phillips 66 (Jet)
      • Eni
      • OMV
      • Tamoil
      • PKN ORLEN
  • Market structure
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
        • Retail outlets by brand
      • Overall network development
      • Motorway fuel outlets
      • Hypermarket fuel outlets
      • International oil companies
      • Independent groups
      • Network efficiency
      • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
      • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial markets
      • Motor fuels (gasoline/diesel)
      • Industrial/domestic gas oil
      • Aviation kerosene
      • Heavy fuel oil
      • Marine bunkers
      • LPG
      • Lubricants
      • Bitumen
  • Margins
    • Key issues influencing gross fuel margins
    • Key issues influencing net profitability
      • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Marketing gross fuel margins
      • Marketing net profitability
  • Infrastructure
    • Distribution of oil products
      • RMR GmbH shareholders
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
      • Independent petroleum product storage
        • Independent storage facilities
        • Crude oil delivery
          • Pipeline capacity and ownership
      • North-western pipeline system
        • Nord-West Oelleitung GmbH (NWO) shareholders
        • N.V. Rotterdam-Rhine Pipeline (RRP) shareholders
      • Eastern pipeline system
      • Southern pipeline system
        • Transalpine Pipeline (TAL) shareholders
        • Country crude slate overview
        • Refining overview
          • Hamburg (Holburn) refinery profile
          • Schwedt refinery profile

In this report there are 52 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Key demand indicators
    • Total demand
    • Annual demand change
    • Demand by product
    • Demand by sector
    • Car parc by fuel type
    • Gas/diesel oil demand by sector
    • Fuel oil demand by sector
    • Demand forecast
  • Policy and regulation
  • Trade
    • Trade balance 2009 - 2015
    • Trade: Table 1
    • Gasoline trade
    • Trade: Table 2
    • Jet/Kero trade
    • Trade: Table 3
    • Diesel/Gasoil trade
    • Trade: Table 4
    • Fuel oil trade
    • Trade: Table 5
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Image 1
  • Market structure
    • Retail fuel volumes
    • Network size and structure
    • Market structure: Table 2
    • Retail market shares
    • Network development and average site throughput
    • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
    • Commercial transport fuel volumes
  • Margins
    • Gross fuel margins parameters
    • Estimated average retail fuels marketing costs in Germany:
    • Main products: monthly unit gross margins 2010 - 2015
    • Main products: annual average unit gross margins - historic and forecast
    • Forecast unit net margins
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage and distribution infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
    • Infrastructure: Table 3
    • Infrastructure: Table 4
    • Infrastructure: Table 5
    • Infrastructure: Table 6
    • Infrastructure: Table 7
    • Crude input slate - 2015
    • Burghausen refinery profile
    • Bayernoil refinery profile
    • Gelsenkirchen
    • Infrastructure: Table 11
    • Heide
    • Gunvor Raffinerie Ingolstadt refinery profile
    • Lingen refinery profile
    • Leuna (Mider)
    • Karlsruhe MiRO
    • Rhineland refinery profile
    • Infrastructure: Table 18
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