Commodity market report

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook 2016

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Report summary

We expect moderate growth in German motor fuel demand in 2016 however from 2017 onwards demand will decline. Diesel will decline at a relatively slow rate but the pace of decline will be driven by the continued erosion of gasoline demand.The price sensitivity of the German consumer will continue to benefit discount brands while the integrated majors are likely to continue to focus on further reducing costs growing retail non fuel income and building customer loyalty through promotions and incentives. Retail fuel margins look set to remain among the lowest in Europe with the growth of non oil income expected to support net profitability and go some way to prevent the need for large scale service station closures.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Germany downstream oil long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 982.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 76.89 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 136.71 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 88.28 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 127.14 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 117.29 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 177.66 KB

  • Document

    Margins

    PDF 123.15 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 544.93 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Policy and regulation
  • Trade
  • Key companies
  • Market structure
  • Margins
  • Infrastructure

Tables and charts

This report includes 52 images and tables including:

Images

  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand by product
  • Demand by sector
  • Trade balance 2009 - 2015
  • Gasoline trade
  • Jet/Kero trade
  • Diesel/Gasoil trade
  • Fuel oil trade
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Gas/diesel oil demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins 2010 - 2015
  • Key companies: Image 1
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Network development and average site throughput
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial transport fuel volumes
  • Crude input slate - 2015

Tables

  • Key demand indicators
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Trade: Table 2
  • Trade: Table 3
  • Trade: Table 4
  • Trade: Table 5
  • Demand forecast
  • Gross fuel margins parameters
  • Estimated average retail fuels marketing costs in Germany:
  • Main products: annual average unit gross margins - historic and forecast
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Network size and structure
  • Forecast unit net margins
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Market structure: Table 2
  • Retail market shares
  • Infrastructure: Table 3
  • Infrastructure: Table 5
  • Infrastructure: Table 6
  • Infrastructure: Table 7
  • Burghausen refinery profile
  • Bayernoil refinery profile
  • Gelsenkirchen
  • Infrastructure: Table 4
  • Infrastructure: Table 11
  • Heide
  • Gunvor Raffinerie Ingolstadt refinery profile
  • Lingen refinery profile
  • Leuna (Mider)
  • Karlsruhe MiRO
  • Rhineland refinery profile
  • Infrastructure: Table 18

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