Commodity Market Report

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

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21 September 2018

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Retail fuel demand in Germany is expected to grow moderately over the next few years, but enters terminal decline beyond 2020, which will drive continued net closures across the overall retail network. The price sensitivity of the German consumer will continue to benefit discount brands, while the integrated majors remain focused on optimising their portfolios and developing non-fuel divisions. Forming partnerships with specialists in various non-fuel sectors will be key to success in pursuing this strategy. Other considerations include building customer loyalty through promotions and fuel card networks. Retail fuel margins are expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future, driven by fuel price information transparency and a high degree of competition amongst operators. The growth of non-fuel segments will play a prominent role in supporting net profitability by diversifying retailers' revenue streams and reducing exposure to falling demand. 

Table of contents

    • Market drivers
    • Outlook
    • Gasoline
    • Jet kerosene
    • Gas/diesel oil
    • Fuel oil
    • Regulatory issues
      • 2015 - 2018
      • Pre-2010
    • Product quality
  • Trade
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
      • Motorway fuel outlets
      • Hypermarket fuel outlets
      • International oil companies
        • BP (Aral)
    • Fuels marketing margins
      • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Marketing gross fuel margins
      • Marketing net profitability
    • Distribution of oil products
      • RMR GmbH shareholders
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
      • Independent petroleum product storage
        • Independent storage facilities
        • Crude oil delivery
          • Pipeline capacity and ownership
      • North-western pipeline system
        • Nord-West Oelleitung GmbH (NWO) shareholders
        • N.V. Rotterdam-Rhine Pipeline (RRP) shareholders
      • Eastern pipeline system
      • Southern pipeline system
        • Transalpine Pipeline (TAL) shareholders
        • Country crude slate overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand by product
  • Demand by sector
  • Trade balance
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Gasoline trade - net exporter
  • Jet/kero trade - net importer
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Gas/diesel oil demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Demand forecast
  • Average retail fuels marketing cost estimates
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins
  • Annual average gross margins
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Network size and structure
  • LPG and CNG retail sites by brand
  • Retail outlets by brand
  • Retail market shares
  • Motorway retail sites by brand
  • Annual average net margins
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Market structure: Image 2
  • Market structure: Image 3
  • Market structure: Image 4
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Infrastructure: Table 4
  • Infrastructure: Table 5
  • Infrastructure: Table 6
  • Country crude slate
  • Burghausen refinery profile
  • Infrastructure: Table 8
  • Infrastructure: Table 9
  • Infrastructure: Table 10
  • Infrastructure: Table 11
  • Gunvor Raffinerie Ingolstadt refinery profile
  • Infrastructure: Table 13
  • Infrastructure: Table 14
  • Infrastructure: Table 15
  • Rhineland refinery profile
  • Infrastructure: Table 17
  • Infrastructure: Table 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 678.32 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 749.37 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 699.53 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 734.99 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 795.90 KB

  • Document

    Margins

    PDF 758.32 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 832.24 KB

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