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Commodity Market Report

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

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30 December 2022

Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Germany's retail fuel demand is expected to decline following a short recovery from the lows of 2020. This will drive continued net closures across the overall retail network. The price sensitivity of the German consumer will continue to benefit discount brands. At the same time, the integrated majors remain focused on optimising their portfolios and developing non-fuel offerings to increase forecourt revenue. Forming partnerships with specialists in various non-fuel sectors will be key to pursuing this strategy. Other considerations include building customer loyalty through promotions and fuel card networks. Retail fuel margins are expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future, driven by fuel price information transparency and a high degree of competition amongst operators. Therefore, the growth of non-fuel segments will play a prominent role in supporting net profitability by diversifying retailers' revenue streams and reducing exposure to falling demand.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
  • Outlook
  • Car parc
  • Gasoline
  • Jet kerosene
  • Diesel/gasoil
    • Price monitoring and transpar ency
  • Product quality
  • Electromobility
  • Hydrogen
  • Retail fuel volumes
    • Motorway fuel outlets
    • Hypermarket fuel outlets
  • Retail network efficiency
  • Major players: competitive position
    • Aral (BP)
    • Shell
    • TotalEnergies
    • EG Group
    • Jet (Phillips 66)
    • Eni (Agip)
    • Tamoil (HEM)
  • Independent groups
  • Non-fuel retailing
  • Industrial/domestic gas oil
  • Aviation kerosene
  • Heavy fuel oil
  • Marine bunkers
  • LPG
  • Lubricants
  • Bitumen
    • Retail fuels marketing
    • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Oil product pipelines
    • RMR Pipeline
    • Mitteldeutsche Produktenleitung (MIPRO)
    • Rostock-Leuna pipeline
    • NATO pipelines
    • Others
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
    • Independent petroleum product storage

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Total demand
  • Demand by product
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Biofuel blending percentage
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Retail network size and market share by player (2021)
  • Network development and average site throughput
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial gasoline and diesel demand
  • Service stations on motorways by player (2021)
  • Gross retail margins per year
  • Retail gasoline 95RON price formation 2021
  • Retail diesel price formation 2021
  • Storage and distribution infrastrucutre
  • RMR shareholders
  • Independent storage facilities
  • Bayernoil refinery profile*
  • Burghausen refinery profile
  • Gelsenkirchen refinery profile
  • Gunvor Ingolstadt refinery profile
  • Heide refinery profile
  • Holborn refinery profile
  • Karlsruhe MiRO refinery profile*
  • Leuna (Mider) refinery profile
  • Lingen refinery profile
  • Rhineland refinery profile
  • Schwedt refinery profile*

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Germany downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.98 MB