Oil demand in Lithuania is expected to dip in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Although we expect to see some recovery in 2021, we don't expect total oil demand to return to 2019 levels and instead we expect demand to enter a steady trajectory of decline from 2022. Poland's PKN ORLEN operates Lithuania's sole refinery, which covers the majority of the country's refined product requirements and exports significant quantities of the surplus to the other Baltic States. Heavy rationalisation of the retail fuels network over the past decade has reduced the total number of service stations, thereby supporting higher average throughputs per site. We expect further consolidation in the retail fuel market, given the outlook for demand.