Oil products price forecast update March 2023

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin averaged US$6.60/bbl in February, a fall of US$5.50/bbl from January. The previous month’s spike in refinery margins dissipated as the global hike in middle distillate cracks ahead of the EU embargo on Russian oil product imports proved unfounded. Europe has weathered the transition better than most had anticipated, given the previous stock increases and higher imports from the Middle East and India. We expect the global margin will increase in March as global product supply tightens month-on-month.