Philippines retail fuels long-term outlook

With an improving economy and increasing purchasing power, car ownership is expected to more than double from 42 cars per thousand capita in 2021 and to 93 cars per thousand capita by 2040. This will support gasoline and diesel demand out to 2040. Beyond 2040, however, both gasoline and diesel demand, are forecast to start to decline owing to growth in sales of hybrids and electric vehicles. The county has historically been a net importer of refined oil products given its relatively small domestic refining sector. Following the closure of Shell’s refinery in 2020, there is currently only one refinery in the Philippines. The country’s gasoline and diesel deficit is set to grow out to 2050. There are over 11,000 retail fuel service stations in Philippines with a relatively low average throughput of around one million litres. Over 55% of the service station network is in the Luzon region which accounts for over 70% of the country’s oil products demand.