Commodity market report
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37 Pages

Portugal downstream oil long-term outlook 2015

Portugal downstream oil long-term outlook 2015

Report summary

Sole national refiner, Galp Energia, dominates most domestic oil product markets in Portugal, a position which is supported by its control over much of the country’s downstream logistical infrastructure. Following extensive upgrades at its two oil refineries, Sines and Porto, Portugal's production of gasoline and middle distillate fuels is surplus to domestic demand, resulting in a large net export position for these products. Aside from Galp, the remaining downstream market share is dominated by BP, Repsol and Cepsa. These players source product locally from the Galp refineries - sometimes as swap agreements with Galp in Spain - and also import from their own refineries in neighbouring Spain. Following several years of decline, oil demand in Portugal recovered in 2014 and 2015 as the recovering economy was further stimulated  by low oil prices. Although demand will remain buoyant through to 2020, we expect structural decline in most major oil products over the longer-term. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Portugal downstream oil long-term outlook 2015 PDF - 665.76 KB 37 Pages, 16 Tables, 16 Figures


The long-term outlook for the fuels marketing sector is influenced by many factors: oil product demand, the market structure, key companies and downstream infrastructure developments to name a few.

This long-term outlook report provides a country update of demand trends and an assessment of the key players and assets serving the market.

The report is based on in-depth research about oil product demand, individual market participants and assets and helps downstream operators, traders and financial institutions determine product trading strategies, optimise their assets and identify attractive investment opportunities.

With over 20 years of experience in the refining industry, Wood Mackenzie is a trusted global leader with a reputation for producing consistently reliable information. Our senior analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They use detailed research data to forecast, benchmark and recognise trends that will help both new and existing participants identify opportunities and avoid risks.

  • Executive summary
    • Market drivers
    • Outlook
  • Demand
    • Total demand
    • Annual demand change
    • There has been a sustained process of dieselisation of the passenger car fleet in Portugal for many years. Gasoline's share of new car registrations has fallen from 93% in 1990 to around a third today. Thus, despite an increasing level of car ownership and an ever-growing car population, gasoline demand has been in steady decline, standing today at under 1.1 Mt per annum. At around 370 cars per thousand population, the passenger car fleet is now around 4.0 million compared to just 1.8 million twenty years ago.
    • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Policy and regulation
    • Regulatory issues
    • Product quality
  • Trade
  • Key companies
    • Structure of the oil products market
    • Company positions in Portugal
      • Galp
      • Repsol
      • BP
      • Cepsa
  • Market structure
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
        • Retail outlets by brand
        • Retail market share
      • Overall network
      • Motorway fuels outlets
      • Hypermarket fuel outlets
      • International oil companies
      • Independent groups
      • Network efficiency
      • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
      • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial Fuels
      • Industrial/domestic gas oil
      • Aviation kerosene
      • Heavy fuel oil
      • Marine bunkers
      • LPG
      • Lubricants
      • Bitumen
  • Margins
    • Key issues influencing gross fuel margins
    • Key issues influencing net profitability
      • Retail fuels marketing
      • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Marketing gross fuel margins
      • Main products: monthly unit gross margins 2009 - 2014
      • Main products: annual average unit gross margins
    • Marketing net profitability
      • Forecast unit net margins
  • Infrastructure
    • Distribution of oil products
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
    • Crude oil delivery
    • Country crude slate overview
    • Refining overview

In this report there are 32 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Key demand indicators
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Car parc by vehicle type
    • Gasoil and diesel demand
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Policy and regulation
  • Trade
    • Trade balance 2008 - 2014
    • Trade: Table 1
    • Trade: Table 2
    • Trade: Table 3
    • Trade: Table 4
    • Trade: Table 5
  • Key companies
    • Estimated all products market share 2014
  • Market structure
    • Retail fuel volumes
    • Network size and structure
    • Market structure: Table 2
    • Market structure: Table 3
    • Market structure: Image 2
    • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
    • Market structure: Image 4
  • Margins
    • Gross fuel margins parameters
    • Margins: Image 1
    • Margins: Table 2
    • Margins: Table 3
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage and distribution infrastructure map
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Means of primary distribution
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Crude input slate
    • Sines refinery profile
    • Porto refinery profile
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