Thailand product markets 2021 outlook to 2050

Thailand is expected to have a small total product surplus of about 13,000 b/d for its oil products in 2020, switching from a deficit of 41,000 b/d in 2019 due to refinery investments increasing the supply of diesel/gasoil. In the long term, Thailand is expected to be deficit in LPG, naphtha and gasoline and surplus in jet/kerosene, diesel/gasoil and fuel oil. Gasoline (including ethanol as a non-refinery supply source) had a small deficit in 2020, from a surplus in 2019. Gasoline deficit is expected to increase as demand continues to grow. Therefore, most residue upgrading investments in Thailand should focus on maximising gasoline production. Oil product demand fell in 2020 to 1.34 million b/d from 1.47 million b/d in 2019, and expected to rebound to 1.42 million b/d in 2021. Thereafter, it is forecast to continue to grow based on an average growth rate of 0.6% between 2020 and 2050 to reach 1.78 million b/d by 2050.