Commodity Market Report

United Kingdom downstream oil long-term outlook

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28 September 2018

United Kingdom downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Since the closure of the Milford Haven Refinery in 2014 the UK has been a net importer. Structurally, the UK market is surplus in gasoline and deficit in middle distillates. Fully integrated downstream business models have been increasingly replaced with wholesaler-dealer models, driven by the rapid growth of the dealer-owned retail sector. Five large dealer groups now dominate, purchasing sites that oil companies divested. The UK retail fuel market remains highly competitive, characterised by the aggressive price discounting strategies of the hypermarket groups. Diversification of non-fuel marketing is going to be key to long-term profitability of the UK service station sector.

Table of contents

    • Market drivers
    • Gasoline
    • Gas/diesel oil
    • Jet kerosene
    • Fuel oil
    • Regulatory issues
      • Environment and Emissions Regulations
      • Compulsory Stocking Obligation
    • Product quality
    • Overall Position - Net Importer
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
        • Retail fuel volumes
      • Overall network development
        • Network size and structure
        • Hypermarket fuel outlets
          • International oil companies
            • Shell
            • Valero
            • Phillips66
          • Independent groups
            • MRH
            • Euro Garages
          • Network efficiency
          • Non-fuel retailing
        • Commercial fuels
          • Motor fuels (gasoline and diesel)
          • Industrial/domestic gasoil and kerosene
          • Aviation kerosene
          • Heavy fuel oil
          • Marine bunkers
          • LPG
          • Lubricants
    • Fuels marketing margins
      • Retail fuels marketing
        • Average retail fuels marketing cost estimates
      • Commercial fuels marketing
    • Marketing gross fuel margins
    • Marketing net profitability
    • Storage and distribution infrastructure
    • Distribution of oil products
      • Valero Mainline pipeline system
      • ExxonMobil pipeline system
      • CLH Pipeline System (CLH-PS) - former Government Pipeline and Storage System (GPSS)
      • Total UK - Finaline
      • Manchester Jetline System (MJL)
      • Grangemouth - Finnart
      • Tranmere Oil Terminal - Stanlow Refinery
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
      • Independent storage facilities
    • UK regional retail supply infrastructure
    • Crude delivery
    • Country crude slate overview
      • Pembroke refinery profile
      • Stanlow refinery profile

Tables and charts

This report includes 40 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand by product
  • Demand by sector
  • Trade balance
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Gas/diesel oil demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Trade: Table 2
  • Trade: Table 3
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins
  • Annual average gross margins
  • Annual average net margins
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Pipeline capacity and ownership
  • Crude input slate
  • Eastham refinery profile
  • Fawley refinery profile
  • Grangemouth refinery profile
  • Humber refinery profile
  • Lindsey oil refinery profile
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 8
  • Infrastructure: Table 9
  • Market structure: Image 1
  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Market structure: Table 2
  • Market structure: Table 3
  • Retail market shares
  • Market structure: Table 5
  • Margins: Table 1
  • Network size and throughput per site
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Commercial diesel volumes
  • Fuel suppliers to the UK's main airports
  • Market structure: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United Kingdom downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 7.41 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 681.70 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 748.50 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 700.63 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 732.89 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 3.44 MB

  • Document

    Margins

    PDF 734.97 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 4.53 MB