Commodity market report
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18 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook October 2015

Global steel short-term outlook October 2015

Report summary

October has been yet another month of pain for the global steel industry, with prices averaging US$300/tonne for both HR coil and rebar in China. The diagnosis remains unchanged. Demand is weak almost everywhere (except in Europe and India, unusually enough). Cheap imports from China (and not only) sap margins and production discipline is either unachievable or ineffectual.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook October 2015 PDF - 500.00 KB 18 Pages, 8 Tables, 25 Figures
  • SMS 2015 10 DataFile(V1.1).xls XLS - 221.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Chinese steel market – it just keeps getting worse!
      • Production cuts are never enough
    • European demand growth no longer supports steel production
    • Down, down, deeper and down
      • Import pressure remains for now
      • Production cuts afoot
      • A tough end to the year likely
  • Costs
    • Iron ore prices fall back below US$50/tonne
    • Coal miners feel the pains of the downturn
    • Scrap: the bottom is a crowded place
  • Key companies
    • Industry developments
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Price and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Investment into some northern provinces slowed down significantly during Aug - Sep
    • We see tiny growth or even decline in automotive production this year
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Steel and scrap prices (tables and charts)
    • Despite the good performance of the automotive sector, European HR coil prices will remain under pressure
    • The fall of scrap prices will remove support to rebar prices in Europe and the USA
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Costs
    • Turkish hot metal production and scrap consumption trends
    • Share of steel production loss borne by scrap
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Crude steel production fall spreads and deepens
    • Nothing makes up for the China blues
    • Demand outlook in emerging markets remains weak…
    • …as does the outlook for mature economies
    • Destocking continues in October
    • Demand indicators point to ever deeper contraction
    • Automotive demand is Europe's happy story
    • Market structure: Image 8
    • Real demand indicators point to continuous growth...
    • US steelmakers tighten discipline
    • Steel production growth turns into contraction
    • Underlying demand continues to slowly improve…
    • Apparent consumption remains weak…
    • Stocks jump up again
    • Market structure: Image 15
    • Domestic demand under strain
    • Key quarterly data
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