Commodity market report

Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil, OPEC, and decelerating demand growth

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Report summary

Our H2 2017 long term oil outlook is broadly unchanged from our Spring outlook. We see relatively low prices through 2019 as robust production growth largely from the US limits upside price pressure barring any geopolitically driven supply disruption. We expect price recovery by 2023 supported by higher US tight oil breakevens and the need for higher cost conventional production to fill a growing supply gap. At mid decade prices come under pressure partly because we see a marked deceleration in demand growth to just 0.5 million b/d per year. Into the late 2020s prices enter a sustained recovery. Non OPEC production will have peaked and higher cost production is needed to meet demand. Key questions addressed in this report: What is the outlook for US tight oil? What are the risks? How does the role of OPEC shift? What is driving the slowdown in demand growth?

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  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 3.65 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook price H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook supply H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 991.03 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook demand H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long term outlook H2 2017.xls

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    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil, OPEC, and decelerating demand growth

    PDF 270.24 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil, OPEC, and decelerating demand growth

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    Executive summary

    PDF 108.09 KB

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  • Executive summary

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