We have raised our long term estimates for US tight oil, and now expect volumes to reach 10 million b/d by 2025, 15% higher than before. The Permian Basin drives much of the growth. A host of factors lie behind the upgrade among them corporate consolidation, increased investment, better understanding of the prospectivity, and improved rig efficiencies. Could forecasts rise higher still? Might there be downsides? How do companies get a piece of Permian action if they aren’t in tight oil? We think through the possibilities.