Company Report

Canadian Natural Resources corporate report

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Why buy this report?

Canada’s largest producer is excelling operationally, yet it is plagued by volatile pricing in its home country. It was one of the worst performing equities in its peer group in 2018.

Purchase our report for an in-depth review of the company’s strengths and weaknesses, benchmarked against its peers.

What’s inside this report?

Get answers for all your questions about Canada’s largest producer, including:

  • The outlook for production growth, cash margins and returns
  • How pricing volatility is impacting corporate strategy
  • What are the growth options inside and outside of the core oil sands resource?

02 May 2019

Canadian Natural Resources corporate report

Report summary

Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) is in an enviable position. Its key strategic question is how to allocate an imminent wave of free cash flow coming from its oil sands projects. Our base-case forecast of Cdn$3.5 billion over the next three years is conservative compared to CNRL's guidance. Key upsides include increased shareholder returns and unconventional development. Most of the company's risk is linked to a heavy concentration towards the oil sands. With volatile pricing and a challenging outlook for regional export pipelines, Canada's largest producer will look to maintain and not grow volumes in the short term.

Table of contents

  • Key issues:
    • WCS differentials
  • 2. Maintaining a differentiated shareholder distribution strategy
    • Long-term growth options
  • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • Benchmarking: share price performance
  • Evolution of market premium to WM NPV10
  • Cash flow breakeven outlook
  • Benchmarking: gearing ratio
  • 2019 estimated combined shareholder return yield
  • Reported and forecast production '000 boed
  • Benchmarking: production CAGRs
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. NPV +5
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported development costs
  • Reported and WM forecasted production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves; Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Canadian price discounts
  • WCS differential before and after curtailment
  • Summary of production curtailments
  • Key assets

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Canadian Natural Resources_Corporate_report.xlsx

    XLSX 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Canadian Natural Resources corporate report

    ZIP 1.62 MB

  • Document

    Canadian Natural Resources corporate report

    ZIP 1.62 MB

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