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Canadian Oil Sands corporate report

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12 November 2015

Canadian Oil Sands corporate report

Report summary

Canadian Oil Sands (COS) is a single-asset, pure-play oil-sands venture, focused on optimizing value from it's 36.7% stake in the Syncrude mining project. The company's business model is to distribute free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and, if conditions permit, to grow the asset and in turn the business. But owing to their unhedged pure-play status, COS has been hit hard by the oil price downturn, forcing the company into outright survival mode.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Strategic positioning as oil price collapsed
    • Strategic action to date
    • Impact on the financial outlook
    • Impact on key performance metrics
    • Improving operational performance is critical to near-term financial health
    • Large technical resource base presents significant upside at a higher oil price
    • Wood Mackenzie Corporate Service: our response to low oil prices
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Post oil price crash relative share price performance
  • Premium / discount to WM base-case
  • Projected capital expenditure
  • Reduction in quarterly dividend
  • Evolution of Brent cash flow breakeven prices
  • Evolution of upstream development cash flow
  • Projected company liquidity
  • Evolution of net debt
  • Wood Mackenzie forecast total production
  • NPV before and after oil price collapse
  • Long term operational stability and the impact on production volume
  • Syncrude gross long term production profile
  • Composition of Syncrude's gross SCO reserves
  • Base price assumptions (norminal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (norminal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Value assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions

What's included

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