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Chevron corporate report

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What’s inside this report?

An in-depth review of Chevron’s 2018 performance and what’s ahead for the Major.

Chevron was firing on all cylinders in 2018. Production jumped 7% year-on-year to record levels. Cash flow breakevens fell to US$53/bbl, driving record free cash flow generation. Shareholders were rewarded with a 6% dividend hike and expanded share buyback programme in the Q4 2018 results.

Read our report for our take on what we think is next.

Why buy this report?

We think Chevron has a convincing story to tell. In this report, you’ll get:

  • A considered review of Chevron’s strengths and weaknesses, plus what we think are the key risks to future performance
  • A thorough evaluation of the Major’s performance, from production outlook to cash flow margins and returns
  • Analysis of the options Chevron has to diversify its portfolio: how does it make sure it is not left behind in the energy transition? Is there room to expand in petrochemicals?

This report includes a full set of metrics covering Chevron’s valuation, investment, production, and more.

18 February 2019

Chevron corporate report

Report summary

Chevron is poised to reap the benefits from a difficult period of capital-intensive development. Successful ramp-up from its flagship Australian LNG projects will drive peer-beating near-term growth and free cash flow generation. The upstream strategy will now shift to exploiting a world-class shale position, spearheaded by a leading portfolio in the Permian tight oil play. M&A and more aggressive new ventures are both strategic options as free cash flow generation builds. But Chevron can afford to be choosy: its deep pool of unconventional opportunities can sustain growth well into the late 2020s.

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These reports provide unsurpassed proprietary data and analysis, underpinned by our industry leading asset models to help you understand your peers and competitors, and make the best strategic choices.

Table of contents

  • SWOT analysis
  • Financial framework
    • 1. Current strategic positioning
    • 1.1 Derisking of advantaged positions
    • 1.2 Portfolio focus
    • 2. Production outlook
    • 2.1 US tight oil is key to offsetting base declines
    • 2.2 Longer-term upsides to our base modelling
    • 3. Cash flow margins and returns
    • 4. Unconventionals
    • 4.1 Permian tight oil
    • 4.2 Upsides and Risks in the Permian
    • 4.3 Expansion beyond the Permian
    • 5. Australia
    • 6. Exploration
    • 6.1 Historical performance
    • 6.2 Conventional acreage reload
    • 6.3 Future performance and strategic direction
    • 1. Investment and financials
    • 2. Refining
    • 3. Chemicals
    • 4. Retail
    • 5. Lubricants and additives
  • New Energies
  • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case reserve and resource metrics
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 53 images and tables including:

  • Benchmarking: share price performance
  • Evolution of premium/discount to WM's base case valuation
  • Benchmarking: free cash flow generation
  • Evolution of Chevron's net debt
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported costs
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquids vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Strategic fit of Chevron's portfolio
  • % total upstream value accounted for by the top three regions
  • Production from greenfield pre-FID commercial projects (including incremental projects)
  • % of gas production
  • Chevron's production (WM projections)
  • Benchmarking: Majors' production CAGR
  • Chevron's main growth drivers (commercial assets)
  • Chevron's contingent discovered resource upside
  • Benchmark: newfield development returns
  • Upstream cash flow per boe (2019 terms)
  • Evolution of Chevron's Permian tight oil commercial reserves (2014 vs 2018)
  • Evolution of Chevron's Permian tight oil production (2014 vs 2018)
  • The Supermajors' US tight oil cost curve
  • Top Permian tight oil producers
  • Chevron's Permian tight oil NPV,10 sensitivity
  • Chevron's NPV,10 in international shale
  • Chevron's international shale production
  • Chevron's NPV,10 by country
  • Chevron's Australian upstream cash flow generation
  • Combined conventional and unconventional exploration IRR (2008-2017)
  • Net acreage by status
  • Chevron's refineries by region
  • Chevron: refining capacity by region
  • Chevron: NCM benchmark vs. regional performance
  • Chevron: branded retail network
  • Chevron: company owned retail network

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Chevron corporate report

    ZIP 2.21 MB

  • Document

    Chevron corporate report

    ZIP 2.17 MB

  • Document

    Chevron Corporate Report.xlsx

    XLSX 1.46 MB

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