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Chevron corporate report

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07 March 2019

Chevron corporate report

Report summary

Chevron turned a corner in 2018. Record production and free cash flow paved the way for the initiation of a US$4 billion buyback programme and a 32nd consecutive year of dividend growth. Production growth in 2019 comes in at the high-end of the company's 4-7% guidance range in our base-case. Chevron can also fund investment, dividend and its buyback programme at US$55/bbl from a portfolio that is becoming increasingly concentrated around core positions. Production could be sustained above 3 mmboe/d through next decade from the existing portfolio alone. But concentration risk will have to be carefully managed and Chevron has yet to make any material moves into the renewables sector.

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Table of contents

  • Other Chevron research
  • Executive summary
    • Financial framework
      • 4.2 Upsides and Risks in the Permian
      • 4.3 Expansion beyond the Permian
      • 6.1 Historical performance
      • 6.2 Conventional acreage reload
      • 6.3 Future performance and strategic direction
    • Downstream
      • 1. Investment and financials
      • 2. Refining
      • 3. Chemicals
      • 4. Retail
      • 5. Lubricants and additives
    • New Energies
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserve and resource metrics
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 53 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • Benchmarking: share price performance
  • Evolution of premium/discount to WM's base case valuation
  • Benchmarking: free cash flow generation
  • Evolution of Chevron's net debt
  • Strategic fit of Chevron's portfolio
  • % total upstream value accounted for by the top three regions
  • Production from greenfield pre-FID commercial projects (including incremental projects)
  • % of gas production
  • Chevron's production (WM projections)
  • Benchmarking: Majors' production CAGR
  • Chevron's main growth drivers (commercial assets)
  • Chevron's contingent discovered resource upside
  • Benchmark: newfield development returns
  • Upstream cash flow per boe (2019 terms)
  • Evolution of Chevron's Permian tight oil commercial reserves (2014 vs 2018)
  • Evolution of Chevron's Permian tight oil production (2014 vs 2018)
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported development costs
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquids vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Economic assumptions: Table 1
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • Economic assumptions: Table 2
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Top Permian tight oil producers
  • Chevron's Permian tight oil NPV,10 sensitivity
  • Chevron's NPV,10 in international shale
  • Chevron's international shale production
  • Chevron's NPV,10 by country
  • Chevron's Australian upstream cash flow generation
  • Combined conventional and unconventional exploration IRR (2008-2017)
  • Net acreage by status
  • Chevron's refineries by region
  • Chevron: refining capacity by region
  • Chevron: NCM benchmark vs. regional performance
  • Chevron: branded retail network
  • Chevron: company owned retail network

What's included

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