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Continental Resources corporate report

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17 January 2018

Continental Resources corporate report

Report summary

Continental Resources has been one of the best performing E&P stocks in recent months. Since June 2017 its share price is up 67%, smashing the peer group average increase of 33%. The market has been enthused by the company's impressive momentum at the asset level. Recent wells in the Bakken, SCOOP and STACK are significantly outperforming legacy type curves. The company's pledge for cash flow positive, multi-year 15% to 20% production growth has added fuel to the fire. But can the company deliver upon its ambitious vision? In short, we think it will be challenging.              

Table of contents

  • Other Continental research
  • Executive summary
    • Hyper-focus on well improvements has paid off
      • But tight oil companies are faced with mounting 'above-ground risk' – from investors
      • Can Continental deliver upon its vision?
      • What are the wildcards?
    • 'Back to the Bakken' strategy has proved prescient
      • Bakken well performance has been exceptional in 2017
    • What about Oklahoma?
      • SCOOP / STACK well performance has been best-in-class
      • Flashy IP rates grab headlines, but what about decline rates?
  • Portfolio summary
  • Valuation
  • Investment
  • Production
  • Reserves and resources
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

  • SWOT Analysis
  • Portfolio Summary
  • Upstream EV vs. upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream disc. rate sensitivities vs. upstream EV
  • Upstream base-case valuation NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. future NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Historical development expenditure
  • Historical operating expenditure
  • New project returns
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquid vs. Gas
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Reserve life
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. WM
  • Economic assumptions: Table 1
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Share price performance
  • Benchmark: Bakken / Three Forks remaining locations
  • Benchmark: Bakken / Three Forks acreage
  • Continental's lowest cost of supply is dominated by the SCOOP / STACK
  • Cash flow breakeven vs. Production growth
  • Share price performance in 2017
  • Continental production guidance vs. WM forecast
  • Continental net debt guidance vs. WM forecast
  • Continental: Evolution of net debt since Q2 2014
  • Benchmark: Executive pay structure
  • Continental: Evolution of vintage type curves
  • Projected development capex
  • Continental SCOOP / STACK well performance versus peers
  • SCOOP Core Woodford lateral length evolution
  • Continental: Evolution of type curves by year
  • Strategy: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

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    Continental Resources corporate report

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  • Document

    Continental Resources Corporate Report.xls

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    Continental Resources corporate report

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