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Continental Resources corporate report

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14 January 2019

Continental Resources corporate report

Report summary

Continental Resources has been one of the best performing E&P stocks in recent months. Since June 2017 its share price is up 67%, smashing the peer group average increase of 33%. The market has been enthused by the company's impressive momentum at the asset level. Recent wells in the Bakken, SCOOP and STACK are significantly outperforming legacy type curves. The company's pledge for cash flow positive, multi-year 15% to 20% production growth has added fuel to the fire. But can the company deliver upon its ambitious vision? In short, we think it will be challenging.              

Table of contents

  • Other Continental research
  • Executive summary
    • Committing to full oil-price exposure
    • US$50/bbl WTI is the inflection point for cash flows
    • Low prices could reveal true priorities
    • Attractive M&A options could emerge, but action is not essential
    • Productivity trends: bigger has been better
    • Well inventory: expanding high-quality results to other sub-play areas
  • Portfolio summary
  • Valuation
  • Investment
  • Production
  • Reserves and resources
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

  • SWOT Analysis
  • Share-price performance
  • Portfolio Summary
  • Upstream EV vs. upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported development costs
  • Reported and WM forecasted production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base Price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Oil-hedge positions
  • Cash-flow forecast: WM base price
  • Cash-flow forecast: US$45/bbl scenario
  • Leverage benchmarking
  • Debt-maturity schedule
  • Bakken productivity trend
  • SCOOP and STACK productivity trend
  • Well inventories and valuations

What's included

This report contains:

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  • Document

    Continental Resources Corporate report.xlsx

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