Energy Snapshot: upstream industry themes - March 2018

Budget announcements indicate that the industry is recovering but capital discipline remains. In the current oil price regime, most companies in our coverage will be cash positive over 2018/2019, suggesting a increase in potential for buy-backs and M&A. US liquid production is set to rise this year, despite an expected plateau in the rig count and a flattening in well productivity growth. Our latest analysis of future projects shows that the US Lower 48 will fill the majority of the oil supply gap, with deepwater becoming competitive once again, especially in Latin America. A reduction in the forecast LNG supply gap in the medium term is driving an increased emphasis on new projects. Strong Chinese demand and the decreased supply from Groningen are featured. We also take a deep dive into the complex seasonal economics of Yamal LNG, highlighting the advantages of ice-breakers. Finally, $525 million was recently offered in the deepwater exploration licencing round in Mexico.