Insight
Global oil supply long-term outlook H2 2020
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Report summary
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to put pressure on the outlook for global supply. Industry finances have been hit hard this year and companies have tightened criteria for new investment: higher hurdle rates and lower price assumptions will result in lower spend and fewer projects moving forward. This, combined with the impact of the OPEC+ agreement, has resulted in substantial downgrades to supply. Liquids capacity is downgraded by over 1 million b/d per annum on average to 2030. Non-OPEC supply downgrades account for around three quarters of the revision, with onshore US Lower 48 bearing the brunt. The deferral of conventional non-OPEC production, as well as further exploration success in emerging areas, has resulted in much lower net downgrades post-2030: Guyana, Suriname, Kazakhstan, Brazil and China see the greatest increases.
Table of contents
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Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to US lower 48 offset by conventional upgrades longer term
- US Lower 48: lower growth pushed further into the future
- Upward revisions dominate conventional production in the longer-term
- OPEC long term capacity increases despite downward revisions
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