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Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015
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Report summary
Global M&A spend recovered in 2014, rising one-third year-on-year to US$171 billion. Deal count breached 500 for only the second time. But as oil prices collapsed through Q4, so too did M&A activity. Forced asset sales will increase through 2015, creating a buyers’ market. Circumstances are ripe for both defensive and aggressive consolidation. But a sustained recovery in M&A will require an end to the slump in prices, in order that buyers and sellers can recalibrate expectations.
Table of contents
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2014 overview
- "Other" buyers took up the slack
-
Valuation
- Are deal valuations falling?
- H1 2015 will reveal M&A market’s new LT pricing assumptions
- Companies
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Global Theme – Oil price fall
- 2008/09 an imperfect proxy
- Forced sellers will emerge
- Survival of the fittest
- Buy when there’s blood on the streets .
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Key Theme 1 – Corporate strategies
- Outlook
- Corporate consolidation looms
- The Majors may be weighing up opportunistic consolidation
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Key Theme 2 – Asian NOCs
- Outlook
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Key Theme 3 – Unconventional Oil
- Outlook
- Key Theme 4 – North American gas
- Outlook – locations
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Outlook – oil & gas prices
- Wood Mackenzie expects short term oil price dislocation, but long term strength
- North American gas prices to remain below US$5/mcf into next decade
- Oil and gas futures well below recent market valuations
- Appendix 1 – Further reading
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Appendix 2 – Additional charts and tables
- Top ten unconventional resource weighted deals in 2014
- Top ten NOC acquisitions outside of home country in 2014
- Top ten Majors disposals in 2014
- Implied Long-term Oil Price (deal-by-deal) vs. Brent oil price
- Monthly deal count by region (3 month trailing average)
- Monthly deal count outside of North America (3 month trailing average)
- Disclosed monthly Upstream acquisition expenditure by deal type
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Appendix 3 – Methodology
- Scope of coverage
- Implied Long-Term Oil Price Methodology
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Benefits of the Implied Long-Term Oil Price Methodology
- Implied Long Term Oil Price vs. Traditional 'US$ per barrel' Metrics
- M&A Service
Tables and charts
This report includes 42 images and tables including:
- 2014 global Upstream M&A spend by primary deal location and buyer peer group
- 2012-2014 deal spend, by month
- 2012-2014 regional deal count, by month
- IOCs net spend (adj. for $10bn+ deals)
- IOCs gearing vs. 2015 breakeven
- NOC overseas investment in M&A, by NOC origin
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 18
- Annual M&A spend in NA uncons
- Annual M&A spend in NA tight oil plays
- Annual M&A spend on gas assets - by resource type
- Annual M&A on gas assets - by buyer peer group
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 23
- Wood Mackenzie Brent oil price forecast
- Wood Mackenzie Henry Hub and NBP price forecast
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 3
- Global Upstream M&A spend by deal type
- Global Upstream deal count by region
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 6
- 2014 global Upstream M&A spend by primary country, highlighting ten largest deals by value
- Weighted average Implied Long-term Oil Price vs. Brent oil price
- Net M&A spend by company: top 15 buyers and sellers
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 10
- Average Brent price required through 2015 to maintain current net debt (US$/bbl, NPV10)
- Implied long-term Brent price in current market valuations (US$/bbl, NPV10)
- Brent futures (+ three years) as at start year
- Henry Hub futures (+ three years) as at start year
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 1
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 2
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 3
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 28
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 29
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 30
- Asset deals – quarterly disclosed spend
- Corporate deals – quarterly disclosed spend
- Annual Upstream deal count by primary region
- Annual Upstream M&A spend by primary region
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 35
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 36
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 37
- 2014 acquisitions and disposals by peer group
- Net A&D by peer group, 2014 vs. 2013
- Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 40
What's included
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