Insight
| |
29 Pages

Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015


Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015

Report summary

Global M&A spend recovered in 2014, rising one-third year-on-year to US$171 billion. Deal count breached 500 for only the second time. But as oil prices collapsed through Q4, so too did M&A activity.

Forced asset sales will increase through 2015, creating a buyers’ market. Circumstances are ripe for both defensive and aggressive consolidation. But a sustained recovery in M&A will require an end to the slump in prices, in order that buyers and sellers can recalibrate expectations.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015 PDF - 2.69 MB 29 Pages, 3 Tables, 40 Figures
  • Global Upstream MandA 2014 in review data.xls XLS - 563.50 KB

Description

This Upstream Oil and Gas Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the key implications for those involved.

This report helps participants, suppliers and advisors understand trends, risks and issues within the upstream oil and gas industry. It gives you an expert point of view to support informed decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's 500 dedicated analysts are located in the markets they cover. They produce forward-looking analysis at both country and asset level across the globe, backed by our robust proprietary database of trusted research.

Proprietary data means a superior level of analysis that is simply not available anywhere else. Wood Mackenzie is the recognised gold standard in upstream commercial data and analysis.

  • 2014 overview
    • "Other" buyers took up the slack
  • Valuation
    • Are deal valuations falling?
    • H1 2015 will reveal M&A market’s new LT pricing assumptions
    • Companies
  • Global Theme – Oil price fall
    • 2008/09 an imperfect proxy
    • Forced sellers will emerge
    • Survival of the fittest
    • Buy when there’s blood on the streets….
  • Key Theme 1 – Corporate strategies
    • Outlook
    • Corporate consolidation looms
    • The Majors may be weighing up opportunistic consolidation
  • Key Theme 2 – Asian NOCs
    • Outlook
  • Key Theme 3 – Unconventional Oil
    • Outlook
  • Key Theme 4 – North American gas
  • Outlook – locations
  • Outlook – oil & gas prices
    • Wood Mackenzie expects short term oil price dislocation, but long term strength
    • North American gas prices to remain below US$5/mcf into next decade
    • Oil and gas futures well below recent market valuations
  • Appendix 1 – Further reading
  • Appendix 2 – Additional charts and tables
    • Top ten unconventional resource weighted deals in 2014
    • Top ten NOC acquisitions outside of home country in 2014
    • Top ten Majors disposals in 2014
    • Implied Long-term Oil Price (deal-by-deal) vs. Brent oil price
    • Monthly deal count by region (3 month trailing average)
    • Monthly deal count outside of North America (3 month trailing average)
    • Disclosed monthly Upstream acquisition expenditure by deal type
  • Appendix 3 – Methodology
    • Scope of coverage
    • Implied Long-Term Oil Price Methodology
    • Benefits of the Implied Long-Term Oil Price Methodology
      • Implied Long Term Oil Price vs. Traditional 'US$ per barrel' Metrics
      • M&A Service

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • 2014 overview
    • 2014 global Upstream M&A spend by primary deal location and buyer peer group
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 3
    • Global Upstream M&A spend by deal type
    • Global Upstream deal count by region
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 6
    • 2014 global Upstream M&A spend by primary country, highlighting ten largest deals by value
  • Valuation
    • Weighted average Implied Long-term Oil Price vs. Brent oil price
    • Net M&A spend by company: top 15 buyers and sellers
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 10
  • Global Theme – Oil price fall
    • 2012-2014 deal spend, by month
    • 2012-2014 regional deal count, by month
  • Key Theme 1 – Corporate strategies
    • IOCs net spend (adj. for $10bn+ deals)
    • IOCs gearing vs. 2015 breakeven
    • Average Brent price required through 2015 to maintain current net debt (US$/bbl, NPV10)
    • Implied long-term Brent price in current market valuations (US$/bbl, NPV10)
  • Key Theme 2 – Asian NOCs
    • NOC overseas investment in M&A, by NOC origin
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 18
  • Key Theme 3 – Unconventional Oil
    • Annual M&A spend in NA uncons
    • Annual M&A spend in NA tight oil plays
  • Key Theme 4 – North American gas
    • Annual M&A spend on gas assets - by resource type
    • Annual M&A on gas assets - by buyer peer group
  • Outlook – locations
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 23
  • Outlook – oil & gas prices
    • Wood Mackenzie Brent oil price forecast
    • Wood Mackenzie Henry Hub and NBP price forecast
    • Brent futures (+ three years) as at start year
    • Henry Hub futures (+ three years) as at start year
  • Appendix 1 – Further reading
  • Appendix 2 – Additional charts and tables
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 1
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 2
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Table 3
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 28
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 29
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 30
    • Asset deals – quarterly disclosed spend
    • Corporate deals – quarterly disclosed spend
    • Annual Upstream deal count by primary region
    • Annual Upstream M&A spend by primary region
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 35
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 36
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 37
    • 2014 acquisitions and disposals by peer group
    • Net A&D by peer group, 2014 vs. 2013
  • Appendix 3 – Methodology
    • Global Upstream M&A: 2014 in review and what to look for in 2015: Image 40
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.