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Insight 03 June 2015

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Report summary

We have made significant downward adjustments to our global supply outlook, in reaction to the lower oil price environment. The biggest early effect from low prices is being felt in North America, but the main impact on supply will be seen in the medium-term, from the ongoing deferral of new developments.

Executive summary
- Non-OPEC
  - North America
  - Latin America
  - Europe
  - Russia and the Caspian
  - Asia and Oceania
  - Africa
  - Middle East
- OPEC supply capacity outlook
  - Unconventionals
    - Biofuels
    - Appendix 1: The marginal cost of new supply
    - Appendix 2: Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
      - OPEC
      - Non-OPEC

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
Unplanned supply outages
Total US liquids production and rig count

Monthly US tight oil production forecast
Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 5
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 6
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 10
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 11
OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
Libya production: forecast lowered from H2 2014 outlook
Forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan and revisions since H2 2013
North America production outlook (million b/d)
Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
North America liquids production outlook
Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
Brazil liquids production outlook: significant downward revision from H2 2014 outlook
Europe production outlook (million b/d)
Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
Impact of sanctions shifts long term focus of Russian production
Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
Africa production outlook (million b/d)
Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
Unconvetionals outlook
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 15
Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 16
Other new development volumes by breakeven band*
Pre-sanction offshore project delays