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34 Pages

Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015

Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015

Report summary

We have made significant downward adjustments to our global supply outlook, in reaction to the lower oil price environment. The biggest early effect from low prices is being felt in North America, but the main impact on supply will be seen in the medium-term, from the ongoing deferral of new developments. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015 PDF - 2.27 MB 34 Pages, 12 Tables, 18 Figures


This Upstream Oil and Gas Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the key implications for those involved.

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  • Executive summary
    • Non-OPEC
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Asia and Oceania
      • Africa
      • Middle East
    • OPEC supply capacity outlook
      • Unconventionals
        • Biofuels
        • Appendix 1: The marginal cost of new supply
        • Appendix 2: Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
          • OPEC
          • Non-OPEC

In this report there are 30 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
    • Unplanned supply outages
    • Total US liquids production and rig count
    • Monthly US tight oil production forecast
    • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 5
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 6
    • North America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
    • North America liquids production outlook
    • Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Brazil liquids production outlook: significant downward revision from H2 2014 outlook
    • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
    • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
    • Impact of sanctions shifts long term focus of Russian production
    • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
    • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
    • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
    • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 10
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 11
    • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
    • Libya production: forecast lowered from H2 2014 outlook
    • Forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan and revisions since H2 2013
    • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
    • Unconvetionals outlook
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 15
    • Long-term oil supply outlook - H1 2015: Image 16
    • Other new development volumes by breakeven band*
    • Pre-sanction offshore project delays
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