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Lundin Petroleum corporate report

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30 November 2018

Lundin Petroleum corporate report

Report summary

Lundin boasts the strongest five-year growth outlook in our Corporate Service coverage. The company's transformation will be driven by the start-up of the giant Johan Sverdrup field in late 2019. The near-term focus will be the delivery of this flagship asset. However, with the transformation in sight, management and investors are increasingly thinking longer-term. The key question is how Lundin will maintain its new scale in the second half of the 2020s. Exploration will play the key role but the company should have increasing flexibility to pursue other options.

Table of contents

  • Other Lundin research
    • SWOT analysis
    • Overview
    • Strategic priorities and opportunities
      • 1. Flagship assets a top priority
        • 1.1 Johan Sverdrup – a world class asset
        • 1.2 Maintaining performance at Edvard Grieg
      • 2. The development pipeline and potential upside
        • 2.1 Pre-FID in the base case
        • 2.2 Contingent upside
      • 3. Can the next exploration cycle move the needle?
        • 3.1 A decade of two halves
        • 3.2 The next phase of exploration
      • 4. Improving balance sheet and future flexibility
        • 4.1 Managing the near-term
        • 4.2 Cash flow and investment outlook
      • 5. Future capital allocation opportunities
        • 5.1 Shareholder distributions
        • 5.2 New business development
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
    • Full price and modelling methodology descriptions are available in the 'Methodology and Assumptions' section of the Wood Mackenzie portal. The key prices and global assumptions used in the making of this report are summarised below.
      • Low price assumptions
      • Foreign exchange rate assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 43 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Benchmark: 2018 share price performance
  • Benchmark: market rating to WM base case
  • Lundin: reported and WM forecast production
  • Benchmark: five-year production CAGR
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV10
  • Current NPV10 vs. Future NPV10
  • Base case upstream NPV10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported costs
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves and resource: Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions (norminal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (norminal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Lundin: potential production upside
  • Lundin: upside resources and returns
  • Lundin: year-end net debt outlook
  • Lundin: base case upstream cash flow
  • Economic assumptions: Table 3
  • Value assumptions
  • Economic assumptions: Table 5
  • Johan Sverdrup development summary
  • Benchmark: top offshore oil discoveries
  • Johan Sverdrup: economic sensitivities
  • Benchmark: full-cycle exploration value creation
  • Lundin: discovered resources
  • Benchmark: E&A investment intensity
  • Lundin: map of exploration areas
  • Lundin: cash flow breakeven
  • Lundin: development capex profile
  • Benchmark: Independent E&P dividend yields
  • Norway: 2018 deal ILTOPS

What's included

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