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Murphy Oil corporate report

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06 December 2017

Murphy Oil corporate report

Report summary

Murphy has woken from its exploration hibernation in dramatic fashion. With recent entries into deepwater Mexico and Brazil, coupled with a long-awaited foray into the Permian, we are optimistic on the potential of the new-look portfolio. The company's exploration outlook is arguably the strongest it has ever been. Yet while the opportunities gleam with potential, they are not without risk. The challenge ahead will be to convert high-impact exploration prospects into commercial success.

Table of contents

  • Other Murphy research
    • SWOT Analysis
    • Returning to its exploration roots
    • Becoming a premium rated company
      • Share price performance
    • Balance sheet strengthened, but likely to out-spend cash flow near term
      • Returning value to shareholders – a core objective
    • Is the portfolio built for the long haul?
      • Exploration back on the agenda
    • North America onshore – has it reached an inflection point?
      • High hopes on the Eagle Ford
      • Midland Basin entry
      • Unlocking western Canadian resource potential remains key
  • Portfolio summary
  • Valuation
  • Investment
  • Production
  • Reserves and resources
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

  • Portfolio summary: Table 1
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. future NPV,10
  • Upstream EV vs. upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream disc. rate sensitivities vs. upstream EV
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Historical development expenditure
  • Historical operating expenditure
  • New project returns
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquid vs. Gas
  • Production sensitivity to price
  • Production by Maplecroft country risk rating
  • Total reserves: liquid vs. gas
  • Reserve life
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. WM
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Cash flow breakeven evolution
  • Benchmark: cash flow breakeven vs. gearing
  • Benchmark: evolution of 3-year production CAGR
  • Benchmark: WM commercial reserves life
  • Murphy drilling inventory and asset-level breakevens
  • Strategy: Image 1
  • Murphy market premium price sensitivity
  • Evolution of market premium / discount to WM base-case NPV,10
  • Benchmark: Dividend yield vs. breakeven
  • Benchmark: Total shareholder returns (TSR)
  • Strategy: Table 1
  • Murphy commercial discoveries timeline
  • Murphy acreage position
  • Murphy's acreage position in the Permian Basin, as of December 2017
  • Murphy L48 portfolio: cash flow
  • Benchmark: NA onshore new project returns

What's included

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