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NC KazMunaiGas financial strength tested by Karachaganak pre-emption

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Report summary

The oil price fall has forced NC KazMunaiGas (NC KMG) Kazakhstan s state owned oil and gas operator to take responsive measures to keep its stretched finances under control. If Shell s acquisition of BG closes NC KMG would be able to exercise its pre emptive right to purchase part or all of BG s 29.25% stake in Karachaganak Kazakhstan s key gas project. However recent developments cast doubt over its ability to do so. We do not expect full pre emption of BG s stake. Yet this could still be an opportune time for NC KMG to cement its position in one of Kazakhstan's three megaprojects particularly given its minor current stake (10%). Partial pre emption could prove strategically and commercially compelling with Karachaganak set to provide value and volume growth from the 2020s. Given Shell s US$30 billion disposal target partial pre emption at Karachaganak could be a mutually beneficial outcome for Shell/BG and the Kazakh State.

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • NC KazMunaiGas: capital expenditure and cash flow outlook (2015-20)
  • NC KazMunaiGas: evolving participation in megaprojects
  • KEP - incremental gas sales may exceed GSA
  • Comparative economics of KEP concepts*
  • Karachaganak: key facts

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