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Occidental Petroleum corporate report

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20 December 2018

Occidental Petroleum corporate report

Report summary

Oxy finally achieved cashflow neutrality in Q2 2018, but we calculate it could struggle to maintain this over the next three years. It announced a dramatic budget increase in 2018, upping its Permian Resources capex by 50% and highlighting the cost challenges within its core growth region. Capital discipline will continue to be key in 2019, and Oxy must demonstrate it can meet its growth targets while also delivering the competitive shareholder returns which the market has come to expect.

Table of contents

  • Other Occidental Petroleum research
  • Executive summary
    • Oxy maintains its premium rating
    • Strength through portfolio diversity
    • 1) Combined shareholder returns middle of the pack in 2018
      • Strong long-term growth outlook
      • Corporate breakeven remains high
    • 2) Spotlight on the Permian
      • Permian Resources business key to Oxy's future success
      • EOR business could become a source of growth
      • A leader in carbon capture
      • Further business development on the agenda?
    • 3. The Middle East at a crossroads?
      • Colombia still has a place in the portfolio
    • 4. Midstream and Chemicals – a critical cash generator
  • Portfolio summary
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserves and resources metrics
    • Valuation assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • US Lower 48 assets
  • International assets
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Economic assumptions: Image 1
  • Economic assumptions: Image 2
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Benchmark: share price
  • Benchmark: Premium/discount to base NPV
  • Strategic fit of top international assets
  • Benchmark: NPV by region
  • Benchmark: new project returns
  • Benchmark: indexed dividend yield
  • Benchmark: combined shareholder yield
  • Benchmark: Permian Basin Remaining NPV, 10 by play
  • Benchmark: Permian Basin tight oil production
  • Oxy's Permian Basin cost curve
  • Occidental's new acreage position in Oman
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • Reported development costs
  • New project returns
  • Reported and WM forecasted production
  • Liquids vs Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves; Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs Wood Mackenzie
  • Economic assumptions: Table 4
  • Benchmark: production outlook
  • Cash flow breakeven evolution
  • Net debt outlook
  • Benchmark: Delaware Basin proppant per lateral foot in 2018
  • Benchmark: Delaware Basin Cum180 oil per lateral length

What's included

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