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Pemex corporate report

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15 October 2017

Pemex corporate report

Report summary

Mexico's NOC Pemex is one of the largest oil producers in the world, but years of political complacency have left the company with one of the weakest growth outlooks in the sector. The portfolio is rapidly maturing, and a lack of investment in exploration means the company has few greenfield growth opportunities. Furthermore, the fiscal regime under which the company operates does not work in a low oil price environment, forcing Pemex to increasingly turn to the debt markets. Comprehensive reform, however politically unpalatable, is required. The government needs to lower its take, enabling Pemex to kick-start spend in new development and exploration activity. A deepening of the company's partnering programme to draw in external capital and expertise is also important.

Table of contents

  • Other Pemex research
  • Executive summary
    • The Energy Reform
    • Operational challenges – declining production, a maturing portfolio
    • Financial challenges – fiscal reform, balance sheet repair
    • Priorities to turn around performance
    • 1. Fiscal change is essential to restoration of financial health
      • Energy Reform has brought some changes – momentum must be maintained
      • Divestments will help finances and improve operational focus
    • 2. Sustaining the base business
      • Fully exploiting the Bay of Campeche base and applying EOR
    • 3. Upstream partnering to accelerate development and cash flow
    • 4. Sustaining exploration activity essential to replenishing reserves
      • Deepwater efforts yielding results
      • Shallow water still holds potential
    • Overview
    • Net debt outlook / liquidity
    • Production overview
    • Resources and reserves
    • Summary
    • Shallow water
      • Overview
      • Outlook
      • Upsides
      • Downsides
      • Timeline
    • Deepwater
      • Overview
      • Outlook
      • Upsides
      • Risks
      • Timeline
    • Onshore
      • Overview
      • Outlook
      • Upsides
      • Downsides
      • Timeline
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 40 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Pemex contribution to government revenues
  • Benchmark: historic crude production by country
  • Pemex's rig and well count
  • Proven reserves evolution
  • Net debt evolution
  • Net income by year
  • Benchmark: WM upstream corporate cash flow breakeven (2018-2020)
  • Benchmark: upstream cash flow per boe
  • Benchmark: 3-yr production CAGR evolution
  • Investment by key asset
  • Farm-out results and upcoming opportunities
  • Trion capex & cash flow - Pemex vs. BHP
  • Production forecast net to Pemex for farm outs
  • WM reserves discovered by year
  • Benchmark: WM reserves replacement via conventional exploration (2007-2016)
  • Benchmark: net debt as of end-Q2 2017
  • Brent price required for upstream corporate cash flow neutrality (2018-2020)
  • Net debt outlook
  • Benchmark: cash burn outlook (base-case price)
  • Pemex's reported and forecast production
  • Benchmark: 5-year production CAGR
  • Pemex crude target vs. WM forecast
  • Benchmark: reserves replacement
  • Benchmark: resource life
  • Top upstream assets by value
  • Key assets by value
  • Upstream portfolio NPV,10 - pre-tax vs. post-tax
  • Ek-Balam NPV,10: old vs. new terms
  • Key legacy asset production declines
  • STOIIP vs. recovery factor at key fields identified for EOR
  • Deepwater acreage holders in Mexico
  • YTF vs. full-cycle IRR

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

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