Pemex faces greater uncertainty following the election of President Obrador in December 2018. Energy Reform progress has slowed down and dented investor confidence. A government push to build a massive new refinery in Dos Bocas could lead to capital misallocation. Tough operational and financial challenges remain. Mexico's NOC is one of the largest oil producers in the world, but years of political complacency have left the company with one of the weakest growth outlooks in the sector. The fiscal regime under which the company operates does not work in a low oil price environment, forcing Pemex to increasingly turn to debt markets. Comprehensive reform, however politically unpalatable, is required to turn things around. If its finances improve, Pemex can then step up investment in upstream and capture significant upside from Mexico’s large remaining resource potential.