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Pemex corporate report

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Report summary

Mexico's NOC Pemex is one of the largest oil producers in the world but years of political complacency have left the company with one of the weakest growth outlooks in the sector. The portfolio is rapidly maturing and a lack of investment in exploration means the company has few greenfield growth opportunities. Furthermore the fiscal regime under which the company operates does not work in a low oil price environment forcing Pemex to increasingly turn to the debt markets. Comprehensive reform however politically unpalatable is required. The government needs to lower its take enabling Pemex to kick start spend in new development and exploration activity. A deepening of the company's partnering programme to draw in external capital and expertise is also important.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Pemex Corporate Report.xls

    XLS 3.03 MB

  • Document

    Pemex corporate report

    PDF 547.84 KB

  • Document

    Pemex corporate report

    ZIP 1.18 MB

Table of contents

  • Other Pemex research
  • Executive summary
  • Strategy
  • Financial health
  • Resources, reserves and production
  • Global upstream portfolio
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 40 images and tables including:

Images

  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • Pemex contribution to government revenues
  • Benchmark: historic crude production by country
  • Pemex's rig and well count
  • Proven reserves evolution
  • Net debt evolution
  • Net income by year
  • Benchmark: WM upstream corporate cash flow breakeven (2018-2020)
  • Benchmark: upstream cash flow per boe
  • Benchmark: 3-yr production CAGR evolution
  • Investment by key asset
  • Trion capex & cash flow - Pemex vs. BHP
  • Production forecast net to Pemex for farm outs
  • WM reserves discovered by year
  • Benchmark: WM reserves replacement via conventional exploration (2007-2016)
  • Benchmark: net debt as of end-Q2 2017
  • Brent price required for upstream corporate cash flow neutrality (2018-2020)
  • Net debt outlook
  • Benchmark: cash burn outlook (base-case price)
  • Pemex's reported and forecast production
  • Benchmark: 5-year production CAGR
  • Pemex crude target vs. WM forecast
  • Benchmark: reserves replacement
  • Benchmark: resource life
  • Top upstream assets by value
  • Upstream portfolio NPV,10 - pre-tax vs. post-tax
  • Ek-Balam NPV,10: old vs. new terms
  • Key legacy asset production declines
  • STOIIP vs. recovery factor at key fields identified for EOR
  • Deepwater acreage holders in Mexico
  • YTF vs. full-cycle IRR

Tables

  • SWOT analysis
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Farm-out results and upcoming opportunities
  • Key assets by value

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