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Petrobras corporate report

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06 February 2018

Petrobras corporate report

Report summary

Petrobras has made tremendous progress through the downturn – balance sheet strength is improving, the business is generating cash and its world-class portfolio supports a peer-leading growth outlook. There is still work to be done, particularly with regards completing its ambitious divestment programme. But Brazil is again an investment hotspot for the industry's largest players, and Petrobras will always enjoy a privileged position. The big uncertainty is the outcome of the presidential election, scheduled for October 2018, and its impact on the company.

Table of contents

  • Other Petrobras research
  • Executive summary
    • Portfolio snapshot
    • Strategic priorities
      • 1. De-leveraging – on track to hit target
        • Divestment momentum building, but a lot of work to do in 2018
      • 2. Legacy business - maximising the Campos basin portfolio
        • Bolstering value and reserves through IOR and partnering
      • 3. Growth – supported by strong portfolio, execution is key
        • Top-class economics, peer-leading returns
        • Near-term project execution on track, but long-term risk of delay remains
      • 4. Exploration – prime position to take advantage of Brazil's prospectivity
        • World-class exploration portfolio
        • Exploration portfolio
      • 5. Downstream – recovering market share, partnering to invest
  • Valuation
  • Investment
  • Production
  • Reserves and resources
    • Executive summary
    • Brazil
      • Overview
      • Future focus
      • Upsides
      • Risks
      • Timeline
    • Rest of Latin America
      • Overview
      • Future focus
      • Upsides
      • Risks
      • Timeline
    • US Deepwater GOM
      • Overview
      • Future focus
      • Upsides
      • Timeline
    • Africa
      • Overview
      • Future focus
      • Upsides
      • Risks
      • Timeline
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 52 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • Share price performance
  • Market premium/ discount to WM NPV10
  • Upstream EV vs. upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream disc. rate sensitivities vs. upstream EV
  • Upstream base-case valuation NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. future NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Historical development expenditure
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquid vs. gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Reserves life
  • Total reserves: WM commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. WM
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Economic assumptions: Table 2
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Value assumptions
  • Strategic fit of upstream assets
  • WM NPV10 by resource theme
  • Deepwater reserves by country
  • Top assets by value
  • Greenfield upstream project IRR versus associated capital investment
  • Base case production outlook by region
  • Breakdown of WM resources by region
  • Net debt outlook
  • Top 10 E&Ps by net debt as of end- Q3 2017
  • Brent price required for corporate cash flow neutrality
  • Upstream cash flow
  • Production from producing assets
  • Net upstream cash flow - Campos basin vs. total portfolio
  • Benchmark: production CAGR (2017 to 2022)
  • Upstream development spend intensity
  • 10-yr / 5-yr value creation (2007-2016)
  • Large and giant discoveries (2007-2016)
  • Investment & partnering opportunities
  • Net income & investment - refining, transportation & marketing
  • Domestic vs. international prices/ Refinery utilisation
  • Disposals over 2015-2017
  • Future divestment options
  • Key legacy assets in Campos Basin* - IOR and partnering opportunities
  • Campos basin legacy asset production
  • Roncador production & cash flow - base vs. incremental (on a gross basis)
  • Benchmark: pre-FID project returns
  • Pre-FID project Brent breakeven (15% discount)
  • Strategy: Image 20
  • Strategy: Image 21
  • Strategy: Table 4

What's included

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