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Pioneer Natural Resources corporate report

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10 September 2018

Pioneer Natural Resources corporate report

Report summary

Pioneer's market valuation has lagged our base-case valuation for over a year. We think a holistic development approach will insulate Pioneer from Permian bottlenecks in the near term. And beyond 2020, a dominant, efficiency-rich position in the Midland Basin supports strong growth.

Table of contents

  • Other Pioneer Research
  • Executive summary
    • Manage expectations
    • Leverage competitive advantages
    • Address risks more directly
    • Catalyzing investor sentiment
    • Divesting non-Permian assets
    • Shareholder distributions: transitioning from tokenism to materiality
    • Income
    • Cash flow
    • Returns and capitalization
    • Debt
    • Unit-level analysis
    • Hedges
  • Valuation
    • Type wells
    • Development assumptions
  • Development
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Valuation: WoodMac vs. market
  • WM NAV vs market EV
  • Multiples
  • WoodMac vs. Wall Street consensus
  • NPV10 by asset
  • Production: Image 1
  • Production: Image 2
  • Production: Image 3
  • Production: Image 4
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Absolute terms: Wolfcamp well productivity
  • Normalized: Wolfcamp well productivity
  • Price realizations versus indexes
  • Capital efficiency
  • Downside-scenario valuation
  • Share-price performance
  • A preference for distributions: share-price performance during February 2018 earnings season
  • Base case: dividend payout and yield
  • Hypothetical case: dividend payout and yield
  • Earnings
  • Earnings components
  • Cash flows by category
  • Free cash flow
  • Annual returns
  • Capitalization
  • Leverage metrics
  • Debt maturities
  • Unit-level income
  • Netback analysis
  • Oil hedges
  • Gas hedges
  • EUR and costs
  • Economics
  • Production: Table 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Pioneer Natural Resources corporate report

    ZIP 1.94 MB

  • Document

    Pioneer Natural Resources corporate report

    PDF 971.58 KB

  • Document

    Pioneer model assumptions data.xlsx

    XLSX 1.21 MB