Global liquids production is expected to remain flat in 2016, at 96.1 million b/d. Underlying this, we forecast a decline in non-OPEC supply (including unconventionals and processing gains) of 0.6 million b/d in 2016, driven by declines in US tight oil, Asia and the North Sea. This substantial slowdown is key to rebalancing the oil market in 2016 as OPEC shows no real sign of cutting back its production; although the rate of OPEC growth this year is far slower than in 2015. OPEC crude production is forecast to grow in 2016 by 0.4 million b/d, including Indonesia, which re-joined OPEC effective 1 January 2016. This moderate gain is driven by the lifting of Iran sanctions and subsequent production returning to the market, alongside Saudi Arabia maintaining output above 10 million b/d.