When will US Lower 48 crude oil supply peak?

In our updated US Lower 48 outlook for H1 2018, crude and condensate production in 2018 averages 8.5 million b/d and reaches peak production at 11.7 million b/d. Higher oil prices have brought increased pressure for additional shareholder distributions as the price downturn and 'lower for longer' mentality remain a vivid memory for investors. Capital discipline and balancing shareholder demands with growth aspirations represent a key shift in mindset for US Lower 48 operators in the face of a price rally. Leveraging our recent H1 2018 oil market outlooks and type curve updates, we provide our latest long-term oil supply view and answer the below questions: When will US Lower 48 crude oil supply peak and at what level? Where are the key areas for growth – is it all about the Permian? What is the impact of changing corporate mind-set and the role of the Majors? What are the key risks and assumptions to our view?